Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for no CDC Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" notice by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's current roster of zero such extreme alerts—the highest level reserved for destinations with unmitigable health risks lacking precautions. Recent developments, including a March 24 Level 2 notice for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and updated Level 1 global dengue alert on March 23, highlight ongoing outbreaks like chikungunya and polio but indicate manageable transmission dynamics via vaccinations and mosquito avoidance. With 17 measles outbreaks reported in 2026 mostly outbreak-associated domestically and no escalations to Level 3 or 4 amid stable epidemiological trends post-COVID, traders anticipate continued lower-tier advisories; monitor CDC's bi-weekly updates for shifts in case counts or novel threats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$69,767 거래량
$69,767 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$69,767 거래량
$69,767 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for no CDC Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" notice by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's current roster of zero such extreme alerts—the highest level reserved for destinations with unmitigable health risks lacking precautions. Recent developments, including a March 24 Level 2 notice for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and updated Level 1 global dengue alert on March 23, highlight ongoing outbreaks like chikungunya and polio but indicate manageable transmission dynamics via vaccinations and mosquito avoidance. With 17 measles outbreaks reported in 2026 mostly outbreak-associated domestically and no escalations to Level 3 or 4 amid stable epidemiological trends post-COVID, traders anticipate continued lower-tier advisories; monitor CDC's bi-weekly updates for shifts in case counts or novel threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
거래량
$69,767종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for no CDC Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" notice by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's current roster of zero such extreme alerts—the highest level reserved for destinations with unmitigable health risks lacking precautions. Recent developments, including a March 24 Level 2 notice for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and updated Level 1 global dengue alert on March 23, highlight ongoing outbreaks like chikungunya and polio but indicate manageable transmission dynamics via vaccinations and mosquito avoidance. With 17 measles outbreaks reported in 2026 mostly outbreak-associated domestically and no escalations to Level 3 or 4 amid stable epidemiological trends post-COVID, traders anticipate continued lower-tier advisories; monitor CDC's bi-weekly updates for shifts in case counts or novel threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$69,767종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for no CDC Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" notice by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's current roster of zero such extreme alerts—the highest level reserved for destinations with unmitigable health risks lacking precautions. Recent developments, including a March 24 Level 2 notice for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and updated Level 1 global dengue alert on March 23, highlight ongoing outbreaks like chikungunya and polio but indicate manageable transmission dynamics via vaccinations and mosquito avoidance. With 17 measles outbreaks reported in 2026 mostly outbreak-associated domestically and no escalations to Level 3 or 4 amid stable epidemiological trends post-COVID, traders anticipate continued lower-tier advisories; monitor CDC's bi-weekly updates for shifts in case counts or novel threats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문