Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by resilient U.S. labor market data and the absence of acute financial distress signals. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, while core CPI remained moderate despite headline inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year from an Iran war-fueled oil shock. Fed minutes from the March FOMC meeting indicate officials still eye one regular cut in 2026 amid elevated uncertainty, with CME FedWatch pricing near-certainty of no change at the April 28-29 gathering. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores no crisis warranting inter-meeting action, though escalation in geopolitical tensions, a sharp unemployment reversal above 5%, or banking sector turmoil could prompt a reassessment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$100,426 거래량
$100,426 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$100,426 거래량
$100,426 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by resilient U.S. labor market data and the absence of acute financial distress signals. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, while core CPI remained moderate despite headline inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year from an Iran war-fueled oil shock. Fed minutes from the March FOMC meeting indicate officials still eye one regular cut in 2026 amid elevated uncertainty, with CME FedWatch pricing near-certainty of no change at the April 28-29 gathering. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores no crisis warranting inter-meeting action, though escalation in geopolitical tensions, a sharp unemployment reversal above 5%, or banking sector turmoil could prompt a reassessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
거래량
$100,426종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by resilient U.S. labor market data and the absence of acute financial distress signals. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, while core CPI remained moderate despite headline inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year from an Iran war-fueled oil shock. Fed minutes from the March FOMC meeting indicate officials still eye one regular cut in 2026 amid elevated uncertainty, with CME FedWatch pricing near-certainty of no change at the April 28-29 gathering. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores no crisis warranting inter-meeting action, though escalation in geopolitical tensions, a sharp unemployment reversal above 5%, or banking sector turmoil could prompt a reassessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
거래량
$100,426종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by resilient U.S. labor market data and the absence of acute financial distress signals. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, while core CPI remained moderate despite headline inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year from an Iran war-fueled oil shock. Fed minutes from the March FOMC meeting indicate officials still eye one regular cut in 2026 amid elevated uncertainty, with CME FedWatch pricing near-certainty of no change at the April 28-29 gathering. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores no crisis warranting inter-meeting action, though escalation in geopolitical tensions, a sharp unemployment reversal above 5%, or banking sector turmoil could prompt a reassessment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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