Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a near-certain 95.5% implied probability, driven by his ongoing detention at New York's Metropolitan Detention Center amid dual state and federal murder trials for the 2024 killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Recent April 2026 rulings delayed the state trial to September and federal proceedings to October or January 2027, underscoring prosecutors' success in denying repeated bail bids citing flight risk and public safety amid strong forensic evidence like the weapon and manifesto. This cultural flashpoint—fueled by anti-corporate sentiment—shows no momentum toward release, as pre-trial suppression hearings continue without breakthroughs. Realistic upsets include a surprise plea deal, successful habeas corpus challenge, or medical release, though historical patterns in high-profile murder cases make these slim.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$10,416 거래량
$10,416 거래량
2026.12.31
$10,416 거래량
$10,416 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a near-certain 95.5% implied probability, driven by his ongoing detention at New York's Metropolitan Detention Center amid dual state and federal murder trials for the 2024 killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Recent April 2026 rulings delayed the state trial to September and federal proceedings to October or January 2027, underscoring prosecutors' success in denying repeated bail bids citing flight risk and public safety amid strong forensic evidence like the weapon and manifesto. This cultural flashpoint—fueled by anti-corporate sentiment—shows no momentum toward release, as pre-trial suppression hearings continue without breakthroughs. Realistic upsets include a surprise plea deal, successful habeas corpus challenge, or medical release, though historical patterns in high-profile murder cases make these slim.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
거래량
$10,416종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a near-certain 95.5% implied probability, driven by his ongoing detention at New York's Metropolitan Detention Center amid dual state and federal murder trials for the 2024 killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Recent April 2026 rulings delayed the state trial to September and federal proceedings to October or January 2027, underscoring prosecutors' success in denying repeated bail bids citing flight risk and public safety amid strong forensic evidence like the weapon and manifesto. This cultural flashpoint—fueled by anti-corporate sentiment—shows no momentum toward release, as pre-trial suppression hearings continue without breakthroughs. Realistic upsets include a surprise plea deal, successful habeas corpus challenge, or medical release, though historical patterns in high-profile murder cases make these slim.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$10,416종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a near-certain 95.5% implied probability, driven by his ongoing detention at New York's Metropolitan Detention Center amid dual state and federal murder trials for the 2024 killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Recent April 2026 rulings delayed the state trial to September and federal proceedings to October or January 2027, underscoring prosecutors' success in denying repeated bail bids citing flight risk and public safety amid strong forensic evidence like the weapon and manifesto. This cultural flashpoint—fueled by anti-corporate sentiment—shows no momentum toward release, as pre-trial suppression hearings continue without breakthroughs. Realistic upsets include a surprise plea deal, successful habeas corpus challenge, or medical release, though historical patterns in high-profile murder cases make these slim.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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