Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to the Republican Party prevailing in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's strong R+19 partisan lean—ranking among the nation's most Republican—and incumbent Rep. Dan Meuser's unopposed path through the May 19 closed primary. Meuser, who secured over 70% in recent general elections against underfunded Democrats including Amanda Waldman, reaffirmed his reelection bid after opting out of the 2026 gubernatorial race, solidifying his incumbency advantage in a seat Trump carried by 38 points in 2024. With Democratic nominee Rachel Wallace now set post-March 10 filing deadline and modest fundraising, the matchup appears non-competitive absent a GOP primary upset, personal scandal, major health event, or extraordinary national Democratic midterm wave. The November 3 general election awaits any shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$3,429 거래량
93%
Democratic Party
$0 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to the Republican Party prevailing in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's strong R+19 partisan lean—ranking among the nation's most Republican—and incumbent Rep. Dan Meuser's unopposed path through the May 19 closed primary. Meuser, who secured over 70% in recent general elections against underfunded Democrats including Amanda Waldman, reaffirmed his reelection bid after opting out of the 2026 gubernatorial race, solidifying his incumbency advantage in a seat Trump carried by 38 points in 2024. With Democratic nominee Rachel Wallace now set post-March 10 filing deadline and modest fundraising, the matchup appears non-competitive absent a GOP primary upset, personal scandal, major health event, or extraordinary national Democratic midterm wave. The November 3 general election awaits any shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$3,429종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to the Republican Party prevailing in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's strong R+19 partisan lean—ranking among the nation's most Republican—and incumbent Rep. Dan Meuser's unopposed path through the May 19 closed primary. Meuser, who secured over 70% in recent general elections against underfunded Democrats including Amanda Waldman, reaffirmed his reelection bid after opting out of the 2026 gubernatorial race, solidifying his incumbency advantage in a seat Trump carried by 38 points in 2024. With Democratic nominee Rachel Wallace now set post-March 10 filing deadline and modest fundraising, the matchup appears non-competitive absent a GOP primary upset, personal scandal, major health event, or extraordinary national Democratic midterm wave. The November 3 general election awaits any shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$3,429종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to the Republican Party prevailing in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's strong R+19 partisan lean—ranking among the nation's most Republican—and incumbent Rep. Dan Meuser's unopposed path through the May 19 closed primary. Meuser, who secured over 70% in recent general elections against underfunded Democrats including Amanda Waldman, reaffirmed his reelection bid after opting out of the 2026 gubernatorial race, solidifying his incumbency advantage in a seat Trump carried by 38 points in 2024. With Democratic nominee Rachel Wallace now set post-March 10 filing deadline and modest fundraising, the matchup appears non-competitive absent a GOP primary upset, personal scandal, major health event, or extraordinary national Democratic midterm wave. The November 3 general election awaits any shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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