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정치·대표의 집

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

Market icon
정치·대표의 집

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

Hakeem Jeffries 89%

Katherine Clark 7%

Jim Jordan 4.5%

Steve Scalise 3.2%

Polymarket
신규

Hakeem Jeffries 89%

Katherine Clark 7%

Jim Jordan 4.5%

Steve Scalise 3.2%

Polymarket
신규
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Hakeem Jeffries

$190 거래량

89%

Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Katherine Clark

$55 거래량

7%

Will Pete Aguilar be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Pete Aguilar

$65 거래량

2%

Will Jim Jordan be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Jim Jordan

$88 거래량

5%

Will Steve Scalise be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Steve Scalise

$55 거래량

3%

Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Mike Johnson

$65 거래량

2%

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker following the November 2026 midterms, reflecting sustained Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polls—such as Fox News' 52-46% edge in late January and Rasmussen's narrowing but persistent Democratic advantage as of March 26. These trends align with historical midterm patterns where the president's party (Republicans under Trump) typically loses House seats, endangering the GOP's slim current majority amid competitive swing districts and early retirements like CA-48's Darrell Issa. Jeffries' strong Democratic leadership position dwarfs challengers like Katherine Clark or Pete Aguilar, while low odds on Republicans Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, or Mike Johnson underscore expectations of a partisan flip. Primaries through summer could refine district forecasts.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$517
종료일
2027.01.03
마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker following the November 2026 midterms, reflecting sustained Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polls—such as Fox News' 52-46% edge in late January and Rasmussen's narrowing but persistent Democratic advantage as of March 26. These trends align with historical midterm patterns where the president's party (Republicans under Trump) typically loses House seats, endangering the GOP's slim current majority amid competitive swing districts and early retirements like CA-48's Darrell Issa. Jeffries' strong Democratic leadership position dwarfs challengers like Katherine Clark or Pete Aguilar, while low odds on Republicans Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, or Mike Johnson underscore expectations of a partisan flip. Primaries through summer could refine district forecasts.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$517
종료일
2027.01.03
마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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자주 묻는 질문

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?"은 6개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 89%의 "Hakeem Jeffries"이며, 이어서 7%의 "Katherine Clark"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 89¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 89%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?"은 Polymarket에서 새로 생성된 마켓입니다, Apr 8, 2026에 시작됨. 초기 마켓으로서 확률을 설정하고 마켓의 초기 가격 신호를 수립하는 첫 번째 트레이더 중 하나가 될 기회입니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하여 마켓이 성장함에 따라 거래량과 거래 활동을 추적할 수도 있습니다.

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 6개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?"의 현재 유력 후보는 89%의 "Hakeem Jeffries"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 89%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 7%의 "Katherine Clark"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.