Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 61.5% implied probability that Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) will not face criminal charges by June 30, driven by the absence of any reported DOJ or FBI investigation despite a House Ethics Committee probe into sexual misconduct allegations. Gonzales admitted an extramarital affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide, prompting the March 4 ethics launch, while new April 6 reporting revealed 2020 texts pressuring a campaign political director for nude photos—violations of House rules but not evident federal crimes. His April 14 resignation announcement, preempting bipartisan expulsion efforts, has de-escalated pressures, with no primary source indications of criminal referral; ethics panels rarely escalate to indictments without aggravating factors like assault. A special election looms for TX-23, but traders see low risk of charges absent late-breaking developments.