**The 89.5% trader consensus against H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) becoming law in 2026 stems primarily from its repeated failure to clear the Senate filibuster threshold.** Versions of the bill requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration passed the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026 (218-213), yet Senate consideration stalled despite Republican majority control. The measure needs 60 votes for cloture; with 53 Republican seats, it could not secure the necessary cross-party support, as evidenced by one Republican joining Democrats to block inclusion as an amendment to a DHS funding bill in June 2026. **Recent Senate floor action and committee outcomes have reinforced this barrier.** Lawmakers signaled ongoing pursuit through alternative vehicles or executive measures, but no procedural path has emerged to bypass the 60-vote requirement before year-end. Historical patterns of similar election-related legislation facing partisan divides further align with current implied probabilities, as traders weigh the slim likelihood of last-minute bipartisan breakthroughs or procedural maneuvers within the remaining 2026 session.