Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested outlook for Republican House incumbents failing to win their 2026 primaries, with <3 losses at 41.7% edging 7-9 at 40.3%, driven by one confirmed upset—Rep. Dan Crenshaw's defeat by state Rep. Steve Toth in Texas' March 4 primary—and uncertainty around Rep. Tony Gonzales' Texas 23rd District runoff against Trump-aligned challenger Brandon Herrera amid scandal pressures. Recent polls highlight vulnerabilities elsewhere, such as Kentucky's 4th District where incumbent Thomas Massie leads Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein narrowly, and Florida's 27th where Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces conservative primary foes. Intra-party tensions between establishment figures and MAGA challengers fuel bets on moderate losses, but historical midterm primary base rates (typically 5-10 GOP defeats) and upcoming contests in Pennsylvania (April 22), Kentucky (May 19), and beyond could tip toward higher tallies if anti-incumbent sentiment surges or incumbents consolidate support.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트7-9 30.3%
>15 30.1%
10-12 24.8%
13-15 2.3%
$41,309 거래량
$41,309 거래량
<3
23%
4-6
33%
7-9
30%
10-12
25%
13-15
2%
>15
30%
7-9 30.3%
>15 30.1%
10-12 24.8%
13-15 2.3%
$41,309 거래량
$41,309 거래량
<3
$31,414 거래량
23%
4-6
$7,495 거래량
33%
7-9
$549 거래량
30%
10-12
$644 거래량
25%
13-15
$716 거래량
2%
>15
$491 거래량
30%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested outlook for Republican House incumbents failing to win their 2026 primaries, with <3 losses at 41.7% edging 7-9 at 40.3%, driven by one confirmed upset—Rep. Dan Crenshaw's defeat by state Rep. Steve Toth in Texas' March 4 primary—and uncertainty around Rep. Tony Gonzales' Texas 23rd District runoff against Trump-aligned challenger Brandon Herrera amid scandal pressures. Recent polls highlight vulnerabilities elsewhere, such as Kentucky's 4th District where incumbent Thomas Massie leads Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein narrowly, and Florida's 27th where Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces conservative primary foes. Intra-party tensions between establishment figures and MAGA challengers fuel bets on moderate losses, but historical midterm primary base rates (typically 5-10 GOP defeats) and upcoming contests in Pennsylvania (April 22), Kentucky (May 19), and beyond could tip toward higher tallies if anti-incumbent sentiment surges or incumbents consolidate support.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
마켓 개설일: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
거래량
$41,309마켓 개설일
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested outlook for Republican House incumbents failing to win their 2026 primaries, with <3 losses at 41.7% edging 7-9 at 40.3%, driven by one confirmed upset—Rep. Dan Crenshaw's defeat by state Rep. Steve Toth in Texas' March 4 primary—and uncertainty around Rep. Tony Gonzales' Texas 23rd District runoff against Trump-aligned challenger Brandon Herrera amid scandal pressures. Recent polls highlight vulnerabilities elsewhere, such as Kentucky's 4th District where incumbent Thomas Massie leads Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein narrowly, and Florida's 27th where Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces conservative primary foes. Intra-party tensions between establishment figures and MAGA challengers fuel bets on moderate losses, but historical midterm primary base rates (typically 5-10 GOP defeats) and upcoming contests in Pennsylvania (April 22), Kentucky (May 19), and beyond could tip toward higher tallies if anti-incumbent sentiment surges or incumbents consolidate support.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
거래량
$41,309마켓 개설일
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested outlook for Republican House incumbents failing to win their 2026 primaries, with <3 losses at 41.7% edging 7-9 at 40.3%, driven by one confirmed upset—Rep. Dan Crenshaw's defeat by state Rep. Steve Toth in Texas' March 4 primary—and uncertainty around Rep. Tony Gonzales' Texas 23rd District runoff against Trump-aligned challenger Brandon Herrera amid scandal pressures. Recent polls highlight vulnerabilities elsewhere, such as Kentucky's 4th District where incumbent Thomas Massie leads Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein narrowly, and Florida's 27th where Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces conservative primary foes. Intra-party tensions between establishment figures and MAGA challengers fuel bets on moderate losses, but historical midterm primary base rates (typically 5-10 GOP defeats) and upcoming contests in Pennsylvania (April 22), Kentucky (May 19), and beyond could tip toward higher tallies if anti-incumbent sentiment surges or incumbents consolidate support.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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