With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority and defending 22 seats in the 2026 midterms—including battlegrounds like Maine, North Carolina, Texas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Montana—trader consensus reflects a closely contested path to majority control, pricing ≤47 GOP seats at 26% and outcomes from 48-51 totaling over 70%. Historical midterm losses for the president's party (Trump administration) contribute to the tightness, amplified by early April polls showing a razor-thin Texas GOP runoff (Cornyn +1% over Paxton on April 14) and Republican leads in Florida's special election. Sparse polling in key opens like Michigan (Peters) and Montana (Daines) underscores uncertainty, with March primary outcomes in Texas and North Carolina solidifying nominees but revealing no clear momentum. Shifts in presidential approval, inflation data, or summer primaries could widen separations ahead of November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$2,077,500 거래량
$2,077,500 거래량
≤47
27%
48
14%
49
19%
50
15%
51
17%
52
5%
53
3%
54
2%
55
1%
56
1%
57석 이상
1%
$2,077,500 거래량
$2,077,500 거래량
≤47
$37,692 거래량
27%
48
$16,788 거래량
14%
49
$12,536 거래량
19%
50
$61,663 거래량
15%
51
$159,065 거래량
17%
52
$506,041 거래량
5%
53
$13,743 거래량
3%
54
$707,391 거래량
2%
55
$392,110 거래량
1%
56
$140,442 거래량
1%
57석 이상
$30,029 거래량
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority and defending 22 seats in the 2026 midterms—including battlegrounds like Maine, North Carolina, Texas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Montana—trader consensus reflects a closely contested path to majority control, pricing ≤47 GOP seats at 26% and outcomes from 48-51 totaling over 70%. Historical midterm losses for the president's party (Trump administration) contribute to the tightness, amplified by early April polls showing a razor-thin Texas GOP runoff (Cornyn +1% over Paxton on April 14) and Republican leads in Florida's special election. Sparse polling in key opens like Michigan (Peters) and Montana (Daines) underscores uncertainty, with March primary outcomes in Texas and North Carolina solidifying nominees but revealing no clear momentum. Shifts in presidential approval, inflation data, or summer primaries could widen separations ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
거래량
$2,077,500마켓 개설일
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority and defending 22 seats in the 2026 midterms—including battlegrounds like Maine, North Carolina, Texas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Montana—trader consensus reflects a closely contested path to majority control, pricing ≤47 GOP seats at 26% and outcomes from 48-51 totaling over 70%. Historical midterm losses for the president's party (Trump administration) contribute to the tightness, amplified by early April polls showing a razor-thin Texas GOP runoff (Cornyn +1% over Paxton on April 14) and Republican leads in Florida's special election. Sparse polling in key opens like Michigan (Peters) and Montana (Daines) underscores uncertainty, with March primary outcomes in Texas and North Carolina solidifying nominees but revealing no clear momentum. Shifts in presidential approval, inflation data, or summer primaries could widen separations ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$2,077,500마켓 개설일
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority and defending 22 seats in the 2026 midterms—including battlegrounds like Maine, North Carolina, Texas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Montana—trader consensus reflects a closely contested path to majority control, pricing ≤47 GOP seats at 26% and outcomes from 48-51 totaling over 70%. Historical midterm losses for the president's party (Trump administration) contribute to the tightness, amplified by early April polls showing a razor-thin Texas GOP runoff (Cornyn +1% over Paxton on April 14) and Republican leads in Florida's special election. Sparse polling in key opens like Michigan (Peters) and Montana (Daines) underscores uncertainty, with March primary outcomes in Texas and North Carolina solidifying nominees but revealing no clear momentum. Shifts in presidential approval, inflation data, or summer primaries could widen separations ahead of November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문