Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 40-43 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 at 49.5%, reflecting trackers showing 43 as of April 14 amid a record retirement wave—the highest GOP House exits since the 1930s. Recent catalysts include Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales' April 14 resignation announcement, Transportation Chair Sam Graves' March 27 retirement, Darrell Issa's March 6 exit, and earlier March departures by Burgess Owens and Ryan Zinke, with many pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. This surge, surpassing 36 by early April per Ballotpedia, strains the GOP's slim House majority defense in battleground districts, though traders see limited upside to 44+ given historical midterms patterns and primary filing deadlines approaching in key states.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트40–43 49.7%
36–39 27.4%
28–31 12%
44+ 6.9%
$55,288 거래량
$55,288 거래량
2026.08.31
<24
4%
24–27
2%
28–31
12%
32–35
6%
36–39
24%
40–43
50%
44+
11%
40–43 49.7%
36–39 27.4%
28–31 12%
44+ 6.9%
$55,288 거래량
$55,288 거래량
2026.08.31
<24
$3,590 거래량
4%
24–27
$18,766 거래량
2%
28–31
$21,374 거래량
12%
32–35
$4,491 거래량
6%
36–39
$2,468 거래량
24%
40–43
$2,077 거래량
50%
44+
$2,522 거래량
11%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 40-43 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 at 49.5%, reflecting trackers showing 43 as of April 14 amid a record retirement wave—the highest GOP House exits since the 1930s. Recent catalysts include Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales' April 14 resignation announcement, Transportation Chair Sam Graves' March 27 retirement, Darrell Issa's March 6 exit, and earlier March departures by Burgess Owens and Ryan Zinke, with many pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. This surge, surpassing 36 by early April per Ballotpedia, strains the GOP's slim House majority defense in battleground districts, though traders see limited upside to 44+ given historical midterms patterns and primary filing deadlines approaching in key states.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
거래량
$55,288종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 40-43 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 at 49.5%, reflecting trackers showing 43 as of April 14 amid a record retirement wave—the highest GOP House exits since the 1930s. Recent catalysts include Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales' April 14 resignation announcement, Transportation Chair Sam Graves' March 27 retirement, Darrell Issa's March 6 exit, and earlier March departures by Burgess Owens and Ryan Zinke, with many pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. This surge, surpassing 36 by early April per Ballotpedia, strains the GOP's slim House majority defense in battleground districts, though traders see limited upside to 44+ given historical midterms patterns and primary filing deadlines approaching in key states.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$55,288종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 40-43 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 at 49.5%, reflecting trackers showing 43 as of April 14 amid a record retirement wave—the highest GOP House exits since the 1930s. Recent catalysts include Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales' April 14 resignation announcement, Transportation Chair Sam Graves' March 27 retirement, Darrell Issa's March 6 exit, and earlier March departures by Burgess Owens and Ryan Zinke, with many pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. This surge, surpassing 36 by early April per Ballotpedia, strains the GOP's slim House majority defense in battleground districts, though traders see limited upside to 44+ given historical midterms patterns and primary filing deadlines approaching in key states.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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