Trader consensus favors Tom Aspinall at 64% implied probability to hold the UFC heavyweight title at year-end, reflecting his status as reigning champion with a dominant 15-3 record featuring 11 TKOs and recent defenses solidifying his top pound-for-pound contender ranking as of April 14 updates. Sergei Pavlovich's 28.6% share stems from his rebound via 2025 decision wins over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Waldo Cortes-Acosta, positioning him as a top-ranked knockout threat eyeing a title shot. Derrick Lewis (28.1%) draws support from his explosive KO power despite inconsistent form, while Ciryl Gane (27%) benefits from stylistic striking edges but faces skepticism post-losses. Rising prospects like Ante Delija (24.9%) and Cortes-Acosta (24.5%) gain traction amid recent momentum, as Alex Pereira's vacated light heavyweight move sets up an interim title clash with Gane on June 14, potentially elevating new challengers.