Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, with "No" at a 91.5% implied probability, reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current Atlantic outlook showing no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the next seven days. Historically, since 1851 records, zero hurricanes—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—have struck the continental U.S. before June 1, the official season start, due to typically insufficient sea surface temperatures and unfavorable upper-level winds. Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast anticipates below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions. While rapid early-season genesis remains theoretically possible if an aberrant tropical wave emerges and intensifies swiftly, NHC weekly graphical outlooks through late May will provide critical updates on any shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$13,870 거래량
$13,870 거래량
2026.05.31
$13,870 거래량
$13,870 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, with "No" at a 91.5% implied probability, reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current Atlantic outlook showing no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the next seven days. Historically, since 1851 records, zero hurricanes—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—have struck the continental U.S. before June 1, the official season start, due to typically insufficient sea surface temperatures and unfavorable upper-level winds. Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast anticipates below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions. While rapid early-season genesis remains theoretically possible if an aberrant tropical wave emerges and intensifies swiftly, NHC weekly graphical outlooks through late May will provide critical updates on any shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
마켓 개설일: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
거래량
$13,870종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, with "No" at a 91.5% implied probability, reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current Atlantic outlook showing no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the next seven days. Historically, since 1851 records, zero hurricanes—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—have struck the continental U.S. before June 1, the official season start, due to typically insufficient sea surface temperatures and unfavorable upper-level winds. Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast anticipates below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions. While rapid early-season genesis remains theoretically possible if an aberrant tropical wave emerges and intensifies swiftly, NHC weekly graphical outlooks through late May will provide critical updates on any shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
거래량
$13,870종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, with "No" at a 91.5% implied probability, reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current Atlantic outlook showing no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the next seven days. Historically, since 1851 records, zero hurricanes—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—have struck the continental U.S. before June 1, the official season start, due to typically insufficient sea surface temperatures and unfavorable upper-level winds. Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast anticipates below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions. While rapid early-season genesis remains theoretically possible if an aberrant tropical wave emerges and intensifies swiftly, NHC weekly graphical outlooks through late May will provide critical updates on any shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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