A string of outages in mid-April 2026—including major disruptions on April 15, elevated errors on Claude.ai and API on April 16, and degraded service on April 14—has driven trader consensus toward expecting persistent downtime for Anthropic's Claude AI in May, with market-implied odds at 67% for 12+ days affected. Frequent incidents documented on Claude's status page, coupled with user reports of widespread unavailability and complaints about infrastructure strain amid surging demand for models like Opus 4.6, signal scaling challenges possibly tied to GPU shortages. Lower probabilities for fewer days reflect skepticism over quick fixes, though upcoming engineering updates could shift sentiment before May resolves.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트12+ 57%
9-11 27%
6-8 25%
3-5 24%
신규
신규
2026.05.31
0-2
3%
3-5
14%
6-8
19%
9-11
22%
12+
65%
12+ 57%
9-11 27%
6-8 25%
3-5 24%
신규
신규
2026.05.31
0-2
$199 거래량
3%
3-5
$633 거래량
14%
6-8
$37 거래량
19%
9-11
$50 거래량
22%
12+
$338 거래량
65%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).A string of outages in mid-April 2026—including major disruptions on April 15, elevated errors on Claude.ai and API on April 16, and degraded service on April 14—has driven trader consensus toward expecting persistent downtime for Anthropic's Claude AI in May, with market-implied odds at 67% for 12+ days affected. Frequent incidents documented on Claude's status page, coupled with user reports of widespread unavailability and complaints about infrastructure strain amid surging demand for models like Opus 4.6, signal scaling challenges possibly tied to GPU shortages. Lower probabilities for fewer days reflect skepticism over quick fixes, though upcoming engineering updates could shift sentiment before May resolves.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
마켓 개설일: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
거래량
$1,258종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).A string of outages in mid-April 2026—including major disruptions on April 15, elevated errors on Claude.ai and API on April 16, and degraded service on April 14—has driven trader consensus toward expecting persistent downtime for Anthropic's Claude AI in May, with market-implied odds at 67% for 12+ days affected. Frequent incidents documented on Claude's status page, coupled with user reports of widespread unavailability and complaints about infrastructure strain amid surging demand for models like Opus 4.6, signal scaling challenges possibly tied to GPU shortages. Lower probabilities for fewer days reflect skepticism over quick fixes, though upcoming engineering updates could shift sentiment before May resolves.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
거래량
$1,258종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A string of outages in mid-April 2026—including major disruptions on April 15, elevated errors on Claude.ai and API on April 16, and degraded service on April 14—has driven trader consensus toward expecting persistent downtime for Anthropic's Claude AI in May, with market-implied odds at 67% for 12+ days affected. Frequent incidents documented on Claude's status page, coupled with user reports of widespread unavailability and complaints about infrastructure strain amid surging demand for models like Opus 4.6, signal scaling challenges possibly tied to GPU shortages. Lower probabilities for fewer days reflect skepticism over quick fixes, though upcoming engineering updates could shift sentiment before May resolves.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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