Trader consensus prices a 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's March 1 assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent succession to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, on March 8. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maintained loyalty and suppressed ongoing 2025–2026 protests through brutal crackdowns, while a fragile ceasefire since April 8—bolstered by U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan—has paused major airstrikes and infrastructure damage. Economic woes, including 40% inflation and payroll strains from the Strait of Hormuz blockade, add pressure but have not triggered mass defections or uprisings with just two weeks remaining. Realistic shifts could stem from ceasefire collapse, IRGC fractures, or escalated sanctions, though historical patterns favor regime survival absent internal military revolt.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$31,972,566 거래량
$31,972,566 거래량
2026.04.30
예
$31,972,566 거래량
$31,972,566 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's March 1 assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent succession to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, on March 8. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maintained loyalty and suppressed ongoing 2025–2026 protests through brutal crackdowns, while a fragile ceasefire since April 8—bolstered by U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan—has paused major airstrikes and infrastructure damage. Economic woes, including 40% inflation and payroll strains from the Strait of Hormuz blockade, add pressure but have not triggered mass defections or uprisings with just two weeks remaining. Realistic shifts could stem from ceasefire collapse, IRGC fractures, or escalated sanctions, though historical patterns favor regime survival absent internal military revolt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
거래량
$31,972,566종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's March 1 assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent succession to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, on March 8. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maintained loyalty and suppressed ongoing 2025–2026 protests through brutal crackdowns, while a fragile ceasefire since April 8—bolstered by U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan—has paused major airstrikes and infrastructure damage. Economic woes, including 40% inflation and payroll strains from the Strait of Hormuz blockade, add pressure but have not triggered mass defections or uprisings with just two weeks remaining. Realistic shifts could stem from ceasefire collapse, IRGC fractures, or escalated sanctions, though historical patterns favor regime survival absent internal military revolt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$31,972,616종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's March 1 assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent succession to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, on March 8. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maintained loyalty and suppressed ongoing 2025–2026 protests through brutal crackdowns, while a fragile ceasefire since April 8—bolstered by U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan—has paused major airstrikes and infrastructure damage. Economic woes, including 40% inflation and payroll strains from the Strait of Hormuz blockade, add pressure but have not triggered mass defections or uprisings with just two weeks remaining. Realistic shifts could stem from ceasefire collapse, IRGC fractures, or escalated sanctions, though historical patterns favor regime survival absent internal military revolt.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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