**Redistricting has reshaped AL-02 ahead of the November 2026 general election.** The U.S. Supreme Court’s June 2026 ruling in the wake of the Callais decision reinstated Alabama’s 2023 Republican-drawn congressional map, removing Mobile and shifting the district’s partisan balance to an estimated Trump margin of roughly 14 points. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, who won under the prior court-drawn lines in 2024, now faces a substantially more Republican electorate. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid or Likely Republican. A crowded GOP primary on August 11 will determine the nominee, with early polling showing Rhett Marques ahead. Traders view these structural changes as the dominant driver favoring the Republican Party at 70 percent implied probability, while the Democratic share reflects the limited remaining path for Figures in the altered district.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAL-02 House Election Winner
AL-02 House Election Winner
$38,007 Wol.
$38,007 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
70%
Democratic Party
29%
$38,007 Wol.
$38,007 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$19,567 Wol.
70%
Democratic Party
$18,440 Wol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Redistricting has reshaped AL-02 ahead of the November 2026 general election.** The U.S. Supreme Court’s June 2026 ruling in the wake of the Callais decision reinstated Alabama’s 2023 Republican-drawn congressional map, removing Mobile and shifting the district’s partisan balance to an estimated Trump margin of roughly 14 points. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, who won under the prior court-drawn lines in 2024, now faces a substantially more Republican electorate. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid or Likely Republican. A crowded GOP primary on August 11 will determine the nominee, with early polling showing Rhett Marques ahead. Traders view these structural changes as the dominant driver favoring the Republican Party at 70 percent implied probability, while the Democratic share reflects the limited remaining path for Figures in the altered district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$38,007Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Redistricting has reshaped AL-02 ahead of the November 2026 general election.** The U.S. Supreme Court’s June 2026 ruling in the wake of the Callais decision reinstated Alabama’s 2023 Republican-drawn congressional map, removing Mobile and shifting the district’s partisan balance to an estimated Trump margin of roughly 14 points. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, who won under the prior court-drawn lines in 2024, now faces a substantially more Republican electorate. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid or Likely Republican. A crowded GOP primary on August 11 will determine the nominee, with early polling showing Rhett Marques ahead. Traders view these structural changes as the dominant driver favoring the Republican Party at 70 percent implied probability, while the Democratic share reflects the limited remaining path for Figures in the altered district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$38,007Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Redistricting has reshaped AL-02 ahead of the November 2026 general election.** The U.S. Supreme Court’s June 2026 ruling in the wake of the Callais decision reinstated Alabama’s 2023 Republican-drawn congressional map, removing Mobile and shifting the district’s partisan balance to an estimated Trump margin of roughly 14 points. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, who won under the prior court-drawn lines in 2024, now faces a substantially more Republican electorate. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid or Likely Republican. A crowded GOP primary on August 11 will determine the nominee, with early polling showing Rhett Marques ahead. Traders view these structural changes as the dominant driver favoring the Republican Party at 70 percent implied probability, while the Democratic share reflects the limited remaining path for Figures in the altered district.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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