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Polityka·Wybory W USA

Arkansas Senate Election Winner

Market icon
Polityka·Wybory W USA

Arkansas Senate Election Winner

NOWE
Polymarket
NOWE
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? icon

Republican

$6,582 Wol.

94%

Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? icon

Democrat

$1,764 Wol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's commanding lead in the Arkansas Senate race stems from his landslide March 3 primary victory, capturing 82% against token challengers, while Democrat Hallie Shoffner advanced with 79% in a low-turnout contest. Arkansas's deep-red electoral math, where Republicans hold supermajorities in state legislature and Trump carried the state decisively in recent cycles, bolsters trader consensus at 93.5% for the GOP. Cotton's recent first-quarter fundraising reports show a clear financial edge over Shoffner, a farmer and small-business owner. While probabilities exceed 90%, shifts could arise from late scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave ahead of the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Wolumen
$8,346
Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's commanding lead in the Arkansas Senate race stems from his landslide March 3 primary victory, capturing 82% against token challengers, while Democrat Hallie Shoffner advanced with 79% in a low-turnout contest. Arkansas's deep-red electoral math, where Republicans hold supermajorities in state legislature and Trump carried the state decisively in recent cycles, bolsters trader consensus at 93.5% for the GOP. Cotton's recent first-quarter fundraising reports show a clear financial edge over Shoffner, a farmer and small-business owner. While probabilities exceed 90%, shifts could arise from late scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave ahead of the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Wolumen
$8,346
Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Arkansas Senate Election Winner" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 2 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Republican" z 94%, za nim "Democrat" z 6%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 94¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 94% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

"Arkansas Senate Election Winner" to nowo utworzony rynek na Polymarket, uruchomiony Oct 13, 2025. Jako wczesny rynek, to Twoja okazja, aby być jednym z pierwszych traderów, którzy ustalą kursy i określą początkowe sygnały cenowe rynku. Możesz też dodać tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić wolumen i aktywność handlową w miarę rozwoju rynku.

Aby handlować na "Arkansas Senate Election Winner", przeglądaj 2 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Arkansas Senate Election Winner" jest "Republican" z 94%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 94% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Democrat" z 6%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Arkansas Senate Election Winner" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.