**Catalina Lauf holds an 81.5% implied probability in the August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 19th congressional district, ahead of Jim Schwartzel at 11.7% and Jim Oberweis at 3.5%.** The recent complete endorsement from President Trump, issued days before voting, has consolidated support among America First-aligned voters in the open seat. Additional backing from Florida representatives Greg Steube and Kat Cammack, along with outside spending from Rand Paul’s super PAC, has further strengthened her position. Pre-endorsement polling from early August showed Lauf and Schwartzel essentially tied in the high teens with substantial undecided voters, but the late momentum has shifted trader consensus sharply toward Lauf. Other candidates, including former representative Madison Cawthorn, remain at minimal odds amid the crowded field and limited remaining time for shifts before primary day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCatalina Lauf 82%
Jim Schwartzel 11.6%
Jim Oberweis 3.5%
Madison Cawthorn <1%
$74,782 Wol.
$74,782 Wol.
Catalina Lauf
82%
Jim Schwartzel
12%
Jim Oberweis
4%
Madison Cawthorn
1%
Bob Rommel
<1%
Spencer Roach
<1%
Catalina Lauf 82%
Jim Schwartzel 11.6%
Jim Oberweis 3.5%
Madison Cawthorn <1%
$74,782 Wol.
$74,782 Wol.
Catalina Lauf
82%
Jim Schwartzel
12%
Jim Oberweis
4%
Madison Cawthorn
1%
Bob Rommel
<1%
Spencer Roach
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Catalina Lauf holds an 81.5% implied probability in the August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 19th congressional district, ahead of Jim Schwartzel at 11.7% and Jim Oberweis at 3.5%.** The recent complete endorsement from President Trump, issued days before voting, has consolidated support among America First-aligned voters in the open seat. Additional backing from Florida representatives Greg Steube and Kat Cammack, along with outside spending from Rand Paul’s super PAC, has further strengthened her position. Pre-endorsement polling from early August showed Lauf and Schwartzel essentially tied in the high teens with substantial undecided voters, but the late momentum has shifted trader consensus sharply toward Lauf. Other candidates, including former representative Madison Cawthorn, remain at minimal odds amid the crowded field and limited remaining time for shifts before primary day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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