California’s 22nd congressional district remains a toss-up heading into the November 3 general election, with Republican incumbent David Valadao facing Democrat Randy Villegas after redistricting under Proposition 50 narrowed the prior Republican lean and produced a June 2 top-two primary where Valadao captured 40.7% and Villegas 32.4%. The resulting market pricing near even odds across narrow margins reflects Valadao’s established local base in the Central Valley alongside Villegas’s ability to consolidate Democratic support in a district with higher Democratic registration and Medicaid enrollment. Recent polling and forecaster ratings (toss-up or lean Democratic) highlight the race’s sensitivity to turnout among swing voters, attacks on Valadao’s Medicaid-related votes, and any late shifts in national or state conditions that could alter the current narrow balance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-22 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-22 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 3-6% 40%
Democrat 18%+ 39%
Democrat 15-18% 39%
Democrat 12-15% 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 18%+
39%
Democrat 15-18%
39%
Democrat 12-15%
39%
Democrat 9-12%
39%
Democrat 6-9%
39%
Democrat 3-6%
39%
Democrat 0-3%
39%
Republican 0-3%
39%
Republican 3-6%
40%
Republican 6%+
39%
Republican 3-6% 40%
Democrat 18%+ 39%
Democrat 15-18% 39%
Democrat 12-15% 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 18%+
$0 Wol.
39%
Democrat 15-18%
$0 Wol.
39%
Democrat 12-15%
$0 Wol.
39%
Democrat 9-12%
$0 Wol.
39%
Democrat 6-9%
$0 Wol.
39%
Democrat 3-6%
$0 Wol.
39%
Democrat 0-3%
$0 Wol.
39%
Republican 0-3%
$0 Wol.
39%
Republican 3-6%
$0 Wol.
40%
Republican 6%+
$0 Wol.
39%
The 2026 CA-22 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-22 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California’s 22nd congressional district remains a toss-up heading into the November 3 general election, with Republican incumbent David Valadao facing Democrat Randy Villegas after redistricting under Proposition 50 narrowed the prior Republican lean and produced a June 2 top-two primary where Valadao captured 40.7% and Villegas 32.4%. The resulting market pricing near even odds across narrow margins reflects Valadao’s established local base in the Central Valley alongside Villegas’s ability to consolidate Democratic support in a district with higher Democratic registration and Medicaid enrollment. Recent polling and forecaster ratings (toss-up or lean Democratic) highlight the race’s sensitivity to turnout among swing voters, attacks on Valadao’s Medicaid-related votes, and any late shifts in national or state conditions that could alter the current narrow balance.
The 2026 CA-22 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-22 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-22 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 3:33 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-22 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-22 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California’s 22nd congressional district remains a toss-up heading into the November 3 general election, with Republican incumbent David Valadao facing Democrat Randy Villegas after redistricting under Proposition 50 narrowed the prior Republican lean and produced a June 2 top-two primary where Valadao captured 40.7% and Villegas 32.4%. The resulting market pricing near even odds across narrow margins reflects Valadao’s established local base in the Central Valley alongside Villegas’s ability to consolidate Democratic support in a district with higher Democratic registration and Medicaid enrollment. Recent polling and forecaster ratings (toss-up or lean Democratic) highlight the race’s sensitivity to turnout among swing voters, attacks on Valadao’s Medicaid-related votes, and any late shifts in national or state conditions that could alter the current narrow balance.
The 2026 CA-22 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-22 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-22 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 3:33 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...California’s 22nd congressional district remains a toss-up heading into the November 3 general election, with Republican incumbent David Valadao facing Democrat Randy Villegas after redistricting under Proposition 50 narrowed the prior Republican lean and produced a June 2 top-two primary where Valadao captured 40.7% and Villegas 32.4%. The resulting market pricing near even odds across narrow margins reflects Valadao’s established local base in the Central Valley alongside Villegas’s ability to consolidate Democratic support in a district with higher Democratic registration and Medicaid enrollment. Recent polling and forecaster ratings (toss-up or lean Democratic) highlight the race’s sensitivity to turnout among swing voters, attacks on Valadao’s Medicaid-related votes, and any late shifts in national or state conditions that could alter the current narrow balance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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