Montana’s 1st congressional district remains an open seat after incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke opted not to seek re-election, with the general election scheduled for November 3. Aaron Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June 2 primary, while Sam Forstag advanced for Democrats. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s partisan lean. A late-June poll showed the nominees tied, yet trader consensus on platforms like Polymarket assigns Republicans a 61 percent implied probability versus 37.5 percent for Democrats. Factors supporting the current positioning include the seat’s structural tilt, Flint’s primary performance and endorsements, Forstag’s Democratic primary win amid a competitive field, and limited subsequent shifts in polling or campaign momentum through early September.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMT-01 House Election Winner
MT-01 House Election Winner
$11,119 Wol.
$11,119 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
62%
Democratic Party
38%
$11,119 Wol.
$11,119 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,168 Wol.
62%
Democratic Party
$4,952 Wol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Montana’s 1st congressional district remains an open seat after incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke opted not to seek re-election, with the general election scheduled for November 3. Aaron Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June 2 primary, while Sam Forstag advanced for Democrats. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s partisan lean. A late-June poll showed the nominees tied, yet trader consensus on platforms like Polymarket assigns Republicans a 61 percent implied probability versus 37.5 percent for Democrats. Factors supporting the current positioning include the seat’s structural tilt, Flint’s primary performance and endorsements, Forstag’s Democratic primary win amid a competitive field, and limited subsequent shifts in polling or campaign momentum through early September.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Wolumen
$11,119Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Montana’s 1st congressional district remains an open seat after incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke opted not to seek re-election, with the general election scheduled for November 3. Aaron Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June 2 primary, while Sam Forstag advanced for Democrats. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s partisan lean. A late-June poll showed the nominees tied, yet trader consensus on platforms like Polymarket assigns Republicans a 61 percent implied probability versus 37.5 percent for Democrats. Factors supporting the current positioning include the seat’s structural tilt, Flint’s primary performance and endorsements, Forstag’s Democratic primary win amid a competitive field, and limited subsequent shifts in polling or campaign momentum through early September.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$11,119Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Montana’s 1st congressional district remains an open seat after incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke opted not to seek re-election, with the general election scheduled for November 3. Aaron Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June 2 primary, while Sam Forstag advanced for Democrats. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s partisan lean. A late-June poll showed the nominees tied, yet trader consensus on platforms like Polymarket assigns Republicans a 61 percent implied probability versus 37.5 percent for Democrats. Factors supporting the current positioning include the seat’s structural tilt, Flint’s primary performance and endorsements, Forstag’s Democratic primary win amid a competitive field, and limited subsequent shifts in polling or campaign momentum through early September.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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