Maura Sullivan leads the NH-01 Democratic primary field at 70% in trader consensus due to her substantial fundraising edge—over $3.6 million raised versus Stefany Shaheen’s roughly $2.4 million—and strong outside support from veterans groups such as VoteVets. Recent late-August polling from UNH and Saint Anselm College shows Sullivan pulling ahead or statistically tied with Shaheen after starting far behind, reflecting gains in name recognition among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 8 vote. Shaheen’s early advantage stemmed from her family name as the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, yet she has faced challenges closing the gap amid negative advertising and a crowded field. Carleigh Beriont and other progressives remain in single digits as the vote fragments, limiting any one challenger’s path while Sullivan consolidates moderate and establishment backing in the final days.