Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% to win California's 36th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu's entrenched advantage in this coastal Los Angeles-area battleground with nearly 50% Democratic voter registration post-redistricting. Lieu's history of lopsided victories, including a dominant 2024 reelection, combined with a crowded nonpartisan primary field featuring four Democrats—including challengers like Marianne Shamma—and two Republicans like Melissa Toomim, points to a likely top-two advancement of Democrats to the November 3 general election. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, per the March filing deadline. Realistic challenges would require a GOP primary upset, Lieu scandal or withdrawal, or an extraordinary national midterm wave favoring Republicans, though structural district leanings make these low-probability events.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-36 House Election Winner
CA-36 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,271 Wol.
93%
Republican Party
$3,038 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% to win California's 36th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu's entrenched advantage in this coastal Los Angeles-area battleground with nearly 50% Democratic voter registration post-redistricting. Lieu's history of lopsided victories, including a dominant 2024 reelection, combined with a crowded nonpartisan primary field featuring four Democrats—including challengers like Marianne Shamma—and two Republicans like Melissa Toomim, points to a likely top-two advancement of Democrats to the November 3 general election. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, per the March filing deadline. Realistic challenges would require a GOP primary upset, Lieu scandal or withdrawal, or an extraordinary national midterm wave favoring Republicans, though structural district leanings make these low-probability events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$8,310Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% to win California's 36th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu's entrenched advantage in this coastal Los Angeles-area battleground with nearly 50% Democratic voter registration post-redistricting. Lieu's history of lopsided victories, including a dominant 2024 reelection, combined with a crowded nonpartisan primary field featuring four Democrats—including challengers like Marianne Shamma—and two Republicans like Melissa Toomim, points to a likely top-two advancement of Democrats to the November 3 general election. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, per the March filing deadline. Realistic challenges would require a GOP primary upset, Lieu scandal or withdrawal, or an extraordinary national midterm wave favoring Republicans, though structural district leanings make these low-probability events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$8,310Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% to win California's 36th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu's entrenched advantage in this coastal Los Angeles-area battleground with nearly 50% Democratic voter registration post-redistricting. Lieu's history of lopsided victories, including a dominant 2024 reelection, combined with a crowded nonpartisan primary field featuring four Democrats—including challengers like Marianne Shamma—and two Republicans like Melissa Toomim, points to a likely top-two advancement of Democrats to the November 3 general election. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, per the March filing deadline. Realistic challenges would require a GOP primary upset, Lieu scandal or withdrawal, or an extraordinary national midterm wave favoring Republicans, though structural district leanings make these low-probability events.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania