The 2026 Senate map features multiple toss-up and lean contests where recent polling averages show victory margins under 3–5 points, concentrating trader expectations for the narrowest final result in Texas (Paxton vs. Talarico), Iowa (Hinson vs. Turek), Michigan (El-Sayed vs. Rogers), Alaska (Sullivan vs. Peltola), Nebraska (Ricketts vs. Osborn), the Ohio special (Husted vs. Brown), and Maine (Collins vs. Jackson). These races combine open seats or vulnerable incumbents, divided electorates, and state-level dynamics that diverge from the broader national environment, sustaining tight polling and high uncertainty. Late-cycle shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, additional polling releases, or candidate-specific events could widen gaps in any of them and reorder probabilities before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTexas 15%
Iowa 14.1%
Michigan 10.7%
Alaska 11%
$39,746 Wol.
$39,746 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
15%
Iowa
14%
Michigan
11%
Alaska
11%
Nebraska
10%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Maine
9%
New Hampshire
7%
North Carolina
5%
Virginia
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
2%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 15%
Iowa 14.1%
Michigan 10.7%
Alaska 11%
$39,746 Wol.
$39,746 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,876 Wol.
15%
Iowa
$3,287 Wol.
14%
Michigan
$2,998 Wol.
11%
Alaska
$7,695 Wol.
11%
Nebraska
$1,564 Wol.
10%
Ohio (Special)
$8,979 Wol.
9%
Maine
$1,398 Wol.
9%
New Hampshire
$788 Wol.
7%
North Carolina
$871 Wol.
5%
Virginia
$5,073 Wol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Wol.
3%
Georgia
$824 Wol.
2%
New Mexico
$160 Wol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,494 Wol.
1%
Montana
$1,383 Wol.
1%
Colorado
$1,103 Wol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Senate map features multiple toss-up and lean contests where recent polling averages show victory margins under 3–5 points, concentrating trader expectations for the narrowest final result in Texas (Paxton vs. Talarico), Iowa (Hinson vs. Turek), Michigan (El-Sayed vs. Rogers), Alaska (Sullivan vs. Peltola), Nebraska (Ricketts vs. Osborn), the Ohio special (Husted vs. Brown), and Maine (Collins vs. Jackson). These races combine open seats or vulnerable incumbents, divided electorates, and state-level dynamics that diverge from the broader national environment, sustaining tight polling and high uncertainty. Late-cycle shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, additional polling releases, or candidate-specific events could widen gaps in any of them and reorder probabilities before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Wolumen
$39,746Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Senate map features multiple toss-up and lean contests where recent polling averages show victory margins under 3–5 points, concentrating trader expectations for the narrowest final result in Texas (Paxton vs. Talarico), Iowa (Hinson vs. Turek), Michigan (El-Sayed vs. Rogers), Alaska (Sullivan vs. Peltola), Nebraska (Ricketts vs. Osborn), the Ohio special (Husted vs. Brown), and Maine (Collins vs. Jackson). These races combine open seats or vulnerable incumbents, divided electorates, and state-level dynamics that diverge from the broader national environment, sustaining tight polling and high uncertainty. Late-cycle shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, additional polling releases, or candidate-specific events could widen gaps in any of them and reorder probabilities before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$39,746Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Senate map features multiple toss-up and lean contests where recent polling averages show victory margins under 3–5 points, concentrating trader expectations for the narrowest final result in Texas (Paxton vs. Talarico), Iowa (Hinson vs. Turek), Michigan (El-Sayed vs. Rogers), Alaska (Sullivan vs. Peltola), Nebraska (Ricketts vs. Osborn), the Ohio special (Husted vs. Brown), and Maine (Collins vs. Jackson). These races combine open seats or vulnerable incumbents, divided electorates, and state-level dynamics that diverge from the broader national environment, sustaining tight polling and high uncertainty. Late-cycle shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, additional polling releases, or candidate-specific events could widen gaps in any of them and reorder probabilities before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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