Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$62,628 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
84%
Kansas
73%
Alaska
69%
Michigan
62%
Iowa
62%
Ohio (Special)
56%
Maine
56%
New Hampshire
63%
Nebraska
48%
South Carolina
41%
Georgia
27%
Florida (Special)
25%
Minnesota
21%
North Carolina
13%
New Mexico
12%
Montana
9%
Virginia
4%
Colorado
4%
$62,628 Wol.
Texas
$7,129 Wol.
84%
Kansas
$556 Wol.
73%
Alaska
$2,789 Wol.
69%
Michigan
$2,735 Wol.
62%
Iowa
$5,645 Wol.
62%
Ohio (Special)
$3,936 Wol.
56%
Maine
$1,020 Wol.
56%
New Hampshire
$2,352 Wol.
63%
Nebraska
$3,687 Wol.
48%
South Carolina
$109 Wol.
41%
Georgia
$1,394 Wol.
27%
Florida (Special)
$2,450 Wol.
25%
Minnesota
$9,715 Wol.
21%
North Carolina
$5,584 Wol.
13%
New Mexico
$6,665 Wol.
12%
Montana
$2,919 Wol.
9%
Virginia
$1,344 Wol.
4%
Colorado
$2,599 Wol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$62,628Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$62,628Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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