Recent polling averages and handicapper shifts have tightened several 2026 Senate contests, with Ohio’s special election, Maine, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa now rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by Cook Political Report after August 20 moves that reflected fresh surveys showing single-digit or sub-2-point margins. Open seats from retirements, including North Carolina and Iowa, combined with candidate quality, fundraising balance, and national generic-ballot trends favoring Democrats, have expanded the map of races that could finish within 1 point on November 3. Late-cycle factors such as turnout in suburban and rural precincts, final debate performances, and any October polling surges remain the main variables that could push one or more of these contests into the narrowest margins.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNOWE
Nov 3, 2026
New Hampshire
29%
Texas
28%
Alaska
28%
Florida (Special)
28%
Ohio (Special)
27%
Nebraska
27%
North Carolina
27%
Minnesota
27%
Maine
26%
Michigan
26%
Iowa
26%
Colorado
26%
Montana
25%
Virginia
25%
New Mexico
25%
Georgia
16%
$0.00 Wol.
New Hampshire
$0 Wol.
29%
Texas
$0 Wol.
28%
Alaska
$0 Wol.
28%
Florida (Special)
$0 Wol.
28%
Ohio (Special)
$0 Wol.
27%
Nebraska
$0 Wol.
27%
North Carolina
$0 Wol.
27%
Minnesota
$0 Wol.
27%
Maine
$0 Wol.
26%
Michigan
$0 Wol.
26%
Iowa
$0 Wol.
26%
Colorado
$0 Wol.
26%
Montana
$0 Wol.
25%
Virginia
$0 Wol.
25%
New Mexico
$0 Wol.
25%
Georgia
$0 Wol.
16%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and handicapper shifts have tightened several 2026 Senate contests, with Ohio’s special election, Maine, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa now rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by Cook Political Report after August 20 moves that reflected fresh surveys showing single-digit or sub-2-point margins. Open seats from retirements, including North Carolina and Iowa, combined with candidate quality, fundraising balance, and national generic-ballot trends favoring Democrats, have expanded the map of races that could finish within 1 point on November 3. Late-cycle factors such as turnout in suburban and rural precincts, final debate performances, and any October polling surges remain the main variables that could push one or more of these contests into the narrowest margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and handicapper shifts have tightened several 2026 Senate contests, with Ohio’s special election, Maine, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa now rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by Cook Political Report after August 20 moves that reflected fresh surveys showing single-digit or sub-2-point margins. Open seats from retirements, including North Carolina and Iowa, combined with candidate quality, fundraising balance, and national generic-ballot trends favoring Democrats, have expanded the map of races that could finish within 1 point on November 3. Late-cycle factors such as turnout in suburban and rural precincts, final debate performances, and any October polling surges remain the main variables that could push one or more of these contests into the narrowest margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages and handicapper shifts have tightened several 2026 Senate contests, with Ohio’s special election, Maine, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa now rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by Cook Political Report after August 20 moves that reflected fresh surveys showing single-digit or sub-2-point margins. Open seats from retirements, including North Carolina and Iowa, combined with candidate quality, fundraising balance, and national generic-ballot trends favoring Democrats, have expanded the map of races that could finish within 1 point on November 3. Late-cycle factors such as turnout in suburban and rural precincts, final debate performances, and any October polling surges remain the main variables that could push one or more of these contests into the narrowest margins.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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