The 94% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank's ongoing hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through mid-2026, supported by resilient GDP expansion, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2%, and inflation remaining elevated near 3.5% year-over-year. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot projections emphasize a tightening bias to restore price stability, with futures pricing potential hikes rather than cuts amid supply shocks and geopolitical risks. Trader consensus views emergency action as unnecessary absent acute financial stress or recession signals. A sharp deterioration in incoming CPI prints, sudden Middle East escalation, or unexpected downturn could still shift expectations, though current data flows reinforce the pause outlook ahead of the September meeting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$122,489 Wol.
$122,489 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$122,489 Wol.
$122,489 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 94% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank's ongoing hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through mid-2026, supported by resilient GDP expansion, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2%, and inflation remaining elevated near 3.5% year-over-year. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot projections emphasize a tightening bias to restore price stability, with futures pricing potential hikes rather than cuts amid supply shocks and geopolitical risks. Trader consensus views emergency action as unnecessary absent acute financial stress or recession signals. A sharp deterioration in incoming CPI prints, sudden Middle East escalation, or unexpected downturn could still shift expectations, though current data flows reinforce the pause outlook ahead of the September meeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$122,489Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 94% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank's ongoing hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through mid-2026, supported by resilient GDP expansion, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2%, and inflation remaining elevated near 3.5% year-over-year. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot projections emphasize a tightening bias to restore price stability, with futures pricing potential hikes rather than cuts amid supply shocks and geopolitical risks. Trader consensus views emergency action as unnecessary absent acute financial stress or recession signals. A sharp deterioration in incoming CPI prints, sudden Middle East escalation, or unexpected downturn could still shift expectations, though current data flows reinforce the pause outlook ahead of the September meeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Wolumen
$122,489Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 94% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank's ongoing hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through mid-2026, supported by resilient GDP expansion, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2%, and inflation remaining elevated near 3.5% year-over-year. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot projections emphasize a tightening bias to restore price stability, with futures pricing potential hikes rather than cuts amid supply shocks and geopolitical risks. Trader consensus views emergency action as unnecessary absent acute financial stress or recession signals. A sharp deterioration in incoming CPI prints, sudden Middle East escalation, or unexpected downturn could still shift expectations, though current data flows reinforce the pause outlook ahead of the September meeting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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