Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 6?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 6?
26°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$122,585 Wol.
$122,585 Wol.
May 6, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$122,585 Wol.
$122,585 Wol.
May 6, 2026
23°C or below
$10,357 Wol.
No
24°C
$6,554 Wol.
No
25°C
$29,203 Wol.
No
26°C
$21,746 Wol.
Yes
27°C
$15,744 Wol.
No
28°C
$13,266 Wol.
No
29°C
$11,059 Wol.
No
30°C
$6,249 Wol.
No
31°C
$2,845 Wol.
No
32°C
$3,623 Wol.
No
33°C or higher
$1,940 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$122,585Data zakończenia
May 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$122,585Data zakończenia
May 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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