Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Chicago on July 19?
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 19?
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 14%
76-77°F 7%
NOWE
$11,343 Wol.
NOWE
$11,343 Wol.
Jul 19, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
30%
80-81°F
45%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 14%
76-77°F 7%
NOWE
$11,343 Wol.
NOWE
$11,343 Wol.
Jul 19, 2026
71°F or below
$128 Wol.
<1%
72-73°F
$1,629 Wol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,055 Wol.
<1%
76-77°F
$358 Wol.
7%
78-79°F
$1,716 Wol.
30%
80-81°F
$1,626 Wol.
45%
82-83°F
$320 Wol.
14%
84-85°F
$416 Wol.
2%
86-87°F
$352 Wol.
1%
88-89°F
$2,385 Wol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$1,359 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$11,343Data zakończenia
Jul 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$11,343Data zakończenia
Jul 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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