Recent numerical weather prediction outputs from major models indicate peak daytime temperatures in Guangzhou around 36–38°C on August 11 under subtropical high-pressure influence and mostly clear skies that favor strong solar heating. Market-implied odds place 37°C as the narrow leader at 35.5% because ensemble guidance clusters there, while 38°C trails at 27.5% on slightly warmer scenarios; lower probabilities for 36°C and below reflect modest cooling from higher humidity or brief cloud cover. Historical August climatology shows mean highs near 33–34°C with occasional excursions above 37°C, underscoring the current warm anomaly. Traders weigh remaining model spread and any last-minute forecast revisions expected before resolution.