Recent model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional forecasts points to daytime maxima of 31–32 °C on 18 August amid scattered showers and persistent monsoon flow, which explains the near-even market weighting between those two outcomes. Increased cloud cover and convective activity reduce surface insolation compared with clearer subsidence periods, while high humidity and urban heat-island effects limit radiative cooling overnight and keep baseline warmth elevated. Seasonal outlooks already anticipate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures under long-term warming trends and current ENSO conditions, yet short-term variability in rainfall timing and wind patterns can shift the daily peak by 1 °C either way. Traders therefore emphasize the latest model runs and any updated convective outlooks expected before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
31°C 35%
32°C 31%
30°C 23%
33°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 18, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
6%
30°C
23%
31°C
35%
32°C
31%
33°C
9%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 35%
32°C 31%
30°C 23%
33°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 18, 2026
26°C or below
$64 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$158 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$148 Wol.
1%
29°C
$85 Wol.
6%
30°C
$40 Wol.
23%
31°C
$119 Wol.
35%
32°C
$309 Wol.
31%
33°C
$123 Wol.
9%
34°C
$44 Wol.
2%
35°C
$114 Wol.
1%
36°C or higher
$56 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional forecasts points to daytime maxima of 31–32 °C on 18 August amid scattered showers and persistent monsoon flow, which explains the near-even market weighting between those two outcomes. Increased cloud cover and convective activity reduce surface insolation compared with clearer subsidence periods, while high humidity and urban heat-island effects limit radiative cooling overnight and keep baseline warmth elevated. Seasonal outlooks already anticipate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures under long-term warming trends and current ENSO conditions, yet short-term variability in rainfall timing and wind patterns can shift the daily peak by 1 °C either way. Traders therefore emphasize the latest model runs and any updated convective outlooks expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,261Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional forecasts points to daytime maxima of 31–32 °C on 18 August amid scattered showers and persistent monsoon flow, which explains the near-even market weighting between those two outcomes. Increased cloud cover and convective activity reduce surface insolation compared with clearer subsidence periods, while high humidity and urban heat-island effects limit radiative cooling overnight and keep baseline warmth elevated. Seasonal outlooks already anticipate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures under long-term warming trends and current ENSO conditions, yet short-term variability in rainfall timing and wind patterns can shift the daily peak by 1 °C either way. Traders therefore emphasize the latest model runs and any updated convective outlooks expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$1,261Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional forecasts points to daytime maxima of 31–32 °C on 18 August amid scattered showers and persistent monsoon flow, which explains the near-even market weighting between those two outcomes. Increased cloud cover and convective activity reduce surface insolation compared with clearer subsidence periods, while high humidity and urban heat-island effects limit radiative cooling overnight and keep baseline warmth elevated. Seasonal outlooks already anticipate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures under long-term warming trends and current ENSO conditions, yet short-term variability in rainfall timing and wind patterns can shift the daily peak by 1 °C either way. Traders therefore emphasize the latest model runs and any updated convective outlooks expected before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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