Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a transition to fresher conditions across southeast England by August 16, following the mid-August heatwave that delivered 31–34 °C peaks earlier in the week. High pressure shifting northward and a weakening southerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, with daytime maxima most likely in the 24–27 °C range depending on cloud cover and exact frontal timing. London’s urban heat-island effect and measurement at standard sites such as Heathrow or St James’s Park introduce small additional variability. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 25–27 °C, reflecting both the post-heatwave cooling trend and remaining uncertainty in short-range guidance ahead of the next model updates.