The southwest monsoon, or habagat, currently influencing western Luzon including Metro Manila with persistent cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms serves as the main driver keeping implied probabilities highest for a 30°C peak on August 16. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range under these conditions, consistent with historical August averages near 31°C but suppressed by reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, supporting trader emphasis on 30°C (46.5%) over 31°C (27.5%) or 29°C (18%), with only low odds assigned to extremes given the stable monsoon pattern and lack of clearer skies or stronger heating expected before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on August 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 16?
30°C 45%
31°C 28%
29°C 18%
28°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
18%
30°C
45%
31°C
28%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 45%
31°C 28%
29°C 18%
28°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
$300 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$322 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$189 Wol.
1%
27°C
$228 Wol.
1%
28°C
$569 Wol.
7%
29°C
$1,184 Wol.
18%
30°C
$790 Wol.
45%
31°C
$697 Wol.
28%
32°C
$291 Wol.
5%
33°C
$144 Wol.
1%
34°C or higher
$103 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon, or habagat, currently influencing western Luzon including Metro Manila with persistent cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms serves as the main driver keeping implied probabilities highest for a 30°C peak on August 16. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range under these conditions, consistent with historical August averages near 31°C but suppressed by reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, supporting trader emphasis on 30°C (46.5%) over 31°C (27.5%) or 29°C (18%), with only low odds assigned to extremes given the stable monsoon pattern and lack of clearer skies or stronger heating expected before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$4,817Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon, or habagat, currently influencing western Luzon including Metro Manila with persistent cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms serves as the main driver keeping implied probabilities highest for a 30°C peak on August 16. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range under these conditions, consistent with historical August averages near 31°C but suppressed by reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, supporting trader emphasis on 30°C (46.5%) over 31°C (27.5%) or 29°C (18%), with only low odds assigned to extremes given the stable monsoon pattern and lack of clearer skies or stronger heating expected before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$4,817Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The southwest monsoon, or habagat, currently influencing western Luzon including Metro Manila with persistent cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms serves as the main driver keeping implied probabilities highest for a 30°C peak on August 16. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range under these conditions, consistent with historical August averages near 31°C but suppressed by reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, supporting trader emphasis on 30°C (46.5%) over 31°C (27.5%) or 29°C (18%), with only low odds assigned to extremes given the stable monsoon pattern and lack of clearer skies or stronger heating expected before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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