Current model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles points to a peak temperature of 34–35°C in Milan on August 16, underpinning the tight market clustering at those levels with implied probabilities of 40% and 36%. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud cover, and light winds are favoring daytime heating, though slight differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon convection create the narrow spread between 33°C and 35°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology for Milan averages near 30°C, so this setup represents above-normal warmth without extreme heatwave criteria. Traders will monitor the next 12–24-hour model updates and official Italian meteorological service guidance for any adjustments to the maximum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Milan on August 16?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 16?
34°C 40%
35°C 36%
33°C 25%
32°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
31°C or below
7%
32°C
8%
33°C
25%
34°C
40%
35°C
36%
36°C
4%
37°C
7%
38°C
5%
39°C
3%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
34°C 40%
35°C 36%
33°C 25%
32°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
31°C or below
$201 Wol.
7%
32°C
$0 Wol.
8%
33°C
$5 Wol.
25%
34°C
$15 Wol.
40%
35°C
$0 Wol.
36%
36°C
$0 Wol.
4%
37°C
$10 Wol.
7%
38°C
$10 Wol.
5%
39°C
$10 Wol.
3%
40°C
$20 Wol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$10 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles points to a peak temperature of 34–35°C in Milan on August 16, underpinning the tight market clustering at those levels with implied probabilities of 40% and 36%. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud cover, and light winds are favoring daytime heating, though slight differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon convection create the narrow spread between 33°C and 35°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology for Milan averages near 30°C, so this setup represents above-normal warmth without extreme heatwave criteria. Traders will monitor the next 12–24-hour model updates and official Italian meteorological service guidance for any adjustments to the maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$282Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles points to a peak temperature of 34–35°C in Milan on August 16, underpinning the tight market clustering at those levels with implied probabilities of 40% and 36%. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud cover, and light winds are favoring daytime heating, though slight differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon convection create the narrow spread between 33°C and 35°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology for Milan averages near 30°C, so this setup represents above-normal warmth without extreme heatwave criteria. Traders will monitor the next 12–24-hour model updates and official Italian meteorological service guidance for any adjustments to the maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$282Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles points to a peak temperature of 34–35°C in Milan on August 16, underpinning the tight market clustering at those levels with implied probabilities of 40% and 36%. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud cover, and light winds are favoring daytime heating, though slight differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon convection create the narrow spread between 33°C and 35°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology for Milan averages near 30°C, so this setup represents above-normal warmth without extreme heatwave criteria. Traders will monitor the next 12–24-hour model updates and official Italian meteorological service guidance for any adjustments to the maximum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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