Persistent high-pressure ridging and warm Atlantic/Gulf sea-surface temperatures are anchoring Miami overnight lows near 80–82°F for August 16, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 80–83°F bins. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts show limited nocturnal cooling under light southeast flow, high humidity, and minimal cloud cover that suppresses radiational heat loss, consistent with August climatology where the normal low sits near 78°F. Recent observations confirm a warm anomaly with prior nights bottoming in the upper 70s to low 80s, while no frontal passages or tropical moisture intrusions are expected to alter the pattern before resolution. Updated model runs tonight will provide the final data point ahead of the official minimum reading.