**Persistent moisture and thunderstorm activity are the main drivers moderating Houston’s expected high on July 16, keeping trader consensus centered on 90–93°F.** Official National Weather Service guidance points to a mostly cloudy day with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially midday, which limits solar heating and caps the peak near 91°F. This aligns with the market’s top outcomes (90–91°F at 37.5%, 92–93°F at 29%), reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud timing and storm coverage. Recent days have featured scattered to widespread convection tied to a moist airmass, preventing the clearer, hotter conditions typical of mid-July (normal highs ~93–95°F). Model spreads in convective initiation and boundary-layer mixing explain the probability distribution across the 88–93°F range, while lower-probability outcomes above 94°F or below 88°F would require either suppressed clouds or stronger stabilization than currently indicated. Updated NWS and model runs on the morning of July 16 will be the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Houston on July 16?
Highest temperature in Houston on July 16?
90-91°F 100.0%
79°F or below <1%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$36,493 Wol.
$36,493 Wol.
Jul 16, 2026
79°F or below
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
Yes
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
No
96-97°F
No
98°F or higher
No
90-91°F 100.0%
79°F or below <1%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$36,493 Wol.
$36,493 Wol.
Jul 16, 2026
79°F or below
$470 Wol.
No
80-81°F
$575 Wol.
No
82-83°F
$2,869 Wol.
No
84-85°F
$2,723 Wol.
No
86-87°F
$4,477 Wol.
No
88-89°F
$7,326 Wol.
No
90-91°F
$4,659 Wol.
Yes
92-93°F
$4,609 Wol.
No
94-95°F
$4,090 Wol.
No
96-97°F
$2,453 Wol.
No
98°F or higher
$2,242 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent moisture and thunderstorm activity are the main drivers moderating Houston’s expected high on July 16, keeping trader consensus centered on 90–93°F.**
Official National Weather Service guidance points to a mostly cloudy day with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially midday, which limits solar heating and caps the peak near 91°F. This aligns with the market’s top outcomes (90–91°F at 37.5%, 92–93°F at 29%), reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud timing and storm coverage.
Recent days have featured scattered to widespread convection tied to a moist airmass, preventing the clearer, hotter conditions typical of mid-July (normal highs ~93–95°F). Model spreads in convective initiation and boundary-layer mixing explain the probability distribution across the 88–93°F range, while lower-probability outcomes above 94°F or below 88°F would require either suppressed clouds or stronger stabilization than currently indicated. Updated NWS and model runs on the morning of July 16 will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 14, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$36,493Data zakończenia
Jul 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 9:04 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent moisture and thunderstorm activity are the main drivers moderating Houston’s expected high on July 16, keeping trader consensus centered on 90–93°F.**
Official National Weather Service guidance points to a mostly cloudy day with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially midday, which limits solar heating and caps the peak near 91°F. This aligns with the market’s top outcomes (90–91°F at 37.5%, 92–93°F at 29%), reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud timing and storm coverage.
Recent days have featured scattered to widespread convection tied to a moist airmass, preventing the clearer, hotter conditions typical of mid-July (normal highs ~93–95°F). Model spreads in convective initiation and boundary-layer mixing explain the probability distribution across the 88–93°F range, while lower-probability outcomes above 94°F or below 88°F would require either suppressed clouds or stronger stabilization than currently indicated. Updated NWS and model runs on the morning of July 16 will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$36,493Data zakończenia
Jul 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 9:04 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
**Persistent moisture and thunderstorm activity are the main drivers moderating Houston’s expected high on July 16, keeping trader consensus centered on 90–93°F.** Official National Weather Service guidance points to a mostly cloudy day with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially midday, which limits solar heating and caps the peak near 91°F. This aligns with the market’s top outcomes (90–91°F at 37.5%, 92–93°F at 29%), reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud timing and storm coverage. Recent days have featured scattered to widespread convection tied to a moist airmass, preventing the clearer, hotter conditions typical of mid-July (normal highs ~93–95°F). Model spreads in convective initiation and boundary-layer mixing explain the probability distribution across the 88–93°F range, while lower-probability outcomes above 94°F or below 88°F would require either suppressed clouds or stronger stabilization than currently indicated. Updated NWS and model runs on the morning of July 16 will be the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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