Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 26?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 26?
22°C or higher 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$48,219 Wol.
$48,219 Wol.
Apr 26, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
Yes
22°C or higher 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$48,219 Wol.
$48,219 Wol.
Apr 26, 2026
12°C or below
$1,698 Wol.
No
13°C
$1,470 Wol.
No
14°C
$1,851 Wol.
No
15°C
$1,712 Wol.
No
16°C
$2,887 Wol.
No
17°C
$2,331 Wol.
No
18°C
$6,087 Wol.
No
19°C
$8,368 Wol.
No
20°C
$7,017 Wol.
No
21°C
$5,656 Wol.
No
22°C or higher
$9,142 Wol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 24, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Wolumen
$48,219Data zakończenia
Apr 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 24, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$48,219Data zakończenia
Apr 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 24, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania