The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest short-range forecasts project a maximum temperature of 22°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's official resolution point—under a stable high-pressure ridge delivering mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes. This aligns with trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 21°C or higher, bolstered by above-average late-April highs around 23°C, enhanced solar insolation, and urban heat island effects amplifying peak heating in early afternoon hours. Historical early-May climatology averages 21°C highs, reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud buildup or showers (20-30% odds) suppressing temperatures below 21°C, though current model ensembles show strong agreement; monitor AMEDAS observations through evening for final confirmation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 1?
21°C or higher 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$162,934 Wol.
$162,934 Wol.
May 1, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
Yes
21°C or higher 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$162,934 Wol.
$162,934 Wol.
May 1, 2026
11°C or below
$1,260 Wol.
No
12°C
$541 Wol.
No
13°C
$204 Wol.
No
14°C
$6,950 Wol.
No
15°C
$9,977 Wol.
No
16°C
$15,035 Wol.
No
17°C
$22,080 Wol.
No
18°C
$16,936 Wol.
No
19°C
$13,527 Wol.
No
20°C
$17,258 Wol.
No
21°C or higher
$59,167 Wol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest short-range forecasts project a maximum temperature of 22°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's official resolution point—under a stable high-pressure ridge delivering mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes. This aligns with trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 21°C or higher, bolstered by above-average late-April highs around 23°C, enhanced solar insolation, and urban heat island effects amplifying peak heating in early afternoon hours. Historical early-May climatology averages 21°C highs, reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud buildup or showers (20-30% odds) suppressing temperatures below 21°C, though current model ensembles show strong agreement; monitor AMEDAS observations through evening for final confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Wolumen
$162,934Data zakończenia
May 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest short-range forecasts project a maximum temperature of 22°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's official resolution point—under a stable high-pressure ridge delivering mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes. This aligns with trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 21°C or higher, bolstered by above-average late-April highs around 23°C, enhanced solar insolation, and urban heat island effects amplifying peak heating in early afternoon hours. Historical early-May climatology averages 21°C highs, reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud buildup or showers (20-30% odds) suppressing temperatures below 21°C, though current model ensembles show strong agreement; monitor AMEDAS observations through evening for final confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$162,934Data zakończenia
May 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest short-range forecasts project a maximum temperature of 22°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's official resolution point—under a stable high-pressure ridge delivering mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes. This aligns with trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 21°C or higher, bolstered by above-average late-April highs around 23°C, enhanced solar insolation, and urban heat island effects amplifying peak heating in early afternoon hours. Historical early-May climatology averages 21°C highs, reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud buildup or showers (20-30% odds) suppressing temperatures below 21°C, though current model ensembles show strong agreement; monitor AMEDAS observations through evening for final confirmation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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