Current midday observations at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station, the market's resolution source, have already surpassed 25°C under clear skies, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 25°C or higher as the day's highest temperature. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts a peak of 28°C, supported by ensemble model agreement on a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming and above-normal spring conditions in the Kanto region—historical May 2 averages sit at 22°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with real-time data and stable upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer clouds dimming late-afternoon insolation or a sudden cool front, though JMA's evening update shows no such signals; final Haneda data finalizes post-midnight.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$61,684 Wol.
$61,684 Wol.
May 2, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
Yes
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$61,684 Wol.
$61,684 Wol.
May 2, 2026
15°C or below
$2,351 Wol.
No
16°C
$1,647 Wol.
No
17°C
$1,199 Wol.
No
18°C
$2,059 Wol.
No
19°C
$1,892 Wol.
No
20°C
$4,267 Wol.
No
21°C
$7,713 Wol.
No
22°C
$9,321 Wol.
No
23°C
$8,064 Wol.
No
24°C
$10,058 Wol.
No
25°C or higher
$13,113 Wol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current midday observations at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station, the market's resolution source, have already surpassed 25°C under clear skies, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 25°C or higher as the day's highest temperature. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts a peak of 28°C, supported by ensemble model agreement on a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming and above-normal spring conditions in the Kanto region—historical May 2 averages sit at 22°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with real-time data and stable upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer clouds dimming late-afternoon insolation or a sudden cool front, though JMA's evening update shows no such signals; final Haneda data finalizes post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Wolumen
$61,684Data zakończenia
May 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current midday observations at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station, the market's resolution source, have already surpassed 25°C under clear skies, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 25°C or higher as the day's highest temperature. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts a peak of 28°C, supported by ensemble model agreement on a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming and above-normal spring conditions in the Kanto region—historical May 2 averages sit at 22°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with real-time data and stable upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer clouds dimming late-afternoon insolation or a sudden cool front, though JMA's evening update shows no such signals; final Haneda data finalizes post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$61,684Data zakończenia
May 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Current midday observations at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station, the market's resolution source, have already surpassed 25°C under clear skies, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 25°C or higher as the day's highest temperature. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts a peak of 28°C, supported by ensemble model agreement on a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming and above-normal spring conditions in the Kanto region—historical May 2 averages sit at 22°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with real-time data and stable upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer clouds dimming late-afternoon insolation or a sudden cool front, though JMA's evening update shows no such signals; final Haneda data finalizes post-midnight.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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