Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on April 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 25?
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$121,380 Wol.
$121,380 Wol.
Apr 25, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$121,380 Wol.
$121,380 Wol.
Apr 25, 2026
9°C or below
$2,488 Wol.
No
10°C
$2,677 Wol.
No
11°C
$5,245 Wol.
No
12°C
$3,556 Wol.
No
13°C
$4,626 Wol.
No
14°C
$10,893 Wol.
No
15°C
$31,486 Wol.
No
16°C
$16,644 Wol.
Yes
17°C
$23,284 Wol.
No
18°C
$11,824 Wol.
No
19°C or higher
$8,658 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 23, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Wolumen
$121,380Data zakończenia
Apr 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 23, 2026, 12:14 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$121,380Data zakończenia
Apr 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 23, 2026, 12:14 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania