Recent official forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models indicate a likely daily maximum of 15–16°C in Wellington on August 26 under northwesterly flow and increasing cloud, aligning with the market’s strong 60.5% implied probability on 16°C and 29.5% on 15°C. These values sit near the long-term August average high of roughly 12–14°C yet reflect mild conditions driven by transient warmer air masses ahead of any southerly change. Model consensus remains tight two days out, with limited spread supporting the narrow distribution around these outcomes; any late intensification of winds or clearer skies could nudge readings higher, while stronger onshore flow might cap them at 15°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest guidance heavily while acknowledging typical late-winter variability in the region.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
16°C 60%
15°C 28%
17°C 12%
14°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
28%
16°C
60%
17°C
12%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 60%
15°C 28%
17°C 12%
14°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
$121 Wol.
<1%
11°C
$171 Wol.
<1%
12°C
$121 Wol.
1%
13°C
$192 Wol.
1%
14°C
$307 Wol.
4%
15°C
$318 Wol.
28%
16°C
$315 Wol.
60%
17°C
$577 Wol.
12%
18°C
$110 Wol.
2%
19°C
$11 Wol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$192 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models indicate a likely daily maximum of 15–16°C in Wellington on August 26 under northwesterly flow and increasing cloud, aligning with the market’s strong 60.5% implied probability on 16°C and 29.5% on 15°C. These values sit near the long-term August average high of roughly 12–14°C yet reflect mild conditions driven by transient warmer air masses ahead of any southerly change. Model consensus remains tight two days out, with limited spread supporting the narrow distribution around these outcomes; any late intensification of winds or clearer skies could nudge readings higher, while stronger onshore flow might cap them at 15°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest guidance heavily while acknowledging typical late-winter variability in the region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,423Data zakończenia
Aug 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models indicate a likely daily maximum of 15–16°C in Wellington on August 26 under northwesterly flow and increasing cloud, aligning with the market’s strong 60.5% implied probability on 16°C and 29.5% on 15°C. These values sit near the long-term August average high of roughly 12–14°C yet reflect mild conditions driven by transient warmer air masses ahead of any southerly change. Model consensus remains tight two days out, with limited spread supporting the narrow distribution around these outcomes; any late intensification of winds or clearer skies could nudge readings higher, while stronger onshore flow might cap them at 15°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest guidance heavily while acknowledging typical late-winter variability in the region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,423Data zakończenia
Aug 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models indicate a likely daily maximum of 15–16°C in Wellington on August 26 under northwesterly flow and increasing cloud, aligning with the market’s strong 60.5% implied probability on 16°C and 29.5% on 15°C. These values sit near the long-term August average high of roughly 12–14°C yet reflect mild conditions driven by transient warmer air masses ahead of any southerly change. Model consensus remains tight two days out, with limited spread supporting the narrow distribution around these outcomes; any late intensification of winds or clearer skies could nudge readings higher, while stronger onshore flow might cap them at 15°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest guidance heavily while acknowledging typical late-winter variability in the region.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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