**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on July 8?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 8?
13°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$111,459 Wol.
$111,459 Wol.
Jul 8, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$111,459 Wol.
$111,459 Wol.
Jul 8, 2026
7°C or below
$3,447 Wol.
No
8°C
$4,283 Wol.
No
9°C
$3,368 Wol.
No
10°C
$6,081 Wol.
No
11°C
$18,505 Wol.
No
12°C
$20,917 Wol.
No
13°C
$16,717 Wol.
Yes
14°C
$12,039 Wol.
No
15°C
$4,694 Wol.
No
16°C
$3,024 Wol.
No
17°C or higher
$18,383 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$111,459Data zakończenia
Jul 8, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$111,459Data zakończenia
Jul 8, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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