Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on May 24?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 24?
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$60,104 Wol.
$60,104 Wol.
May 24, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$60,104 Wol.
$60,104 Wol.
May 24, 2026
10°C or below
$6,298 Wol.
No
11°C
$1,817 Wol.
No
12°C
$4,081 Wol.
No
13°C
$6,705 Wol.
No
14°C
$8,186 Wol.
No
15°C
$11,694 Wol.
Yes
16°C
$9,315 Wol.
No
17°C
$8,574 Wol.
No
18°C
$1,614 Wol.
No
19°C
$1,174 Wol.
No
20°C or higher
$646 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Wolumen
$60,104Data zakończenia
May 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$60,104Data zakończenia
May 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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