**Two Republican Senate incumbents—Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas—have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, establishing the baseline for the current market pricing.** Cassidy failed to advance from Louisiana’s May primary amid a Trump-endorsed challenge by Rep. Julia Letlow, while Cornyn fell to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the May 26 runoff after Trump’s late backing. These outcomes reflect the influence of presidential endorsements and intra-party dynamics on contested races. With approximately 20 Republican-held seats contested in the cycle and most other incumbents (such as those in Nebraska, Wyoming, and elsewhere) either retiring or securing nomination without notable upset, the probability distribution centers on two losses. The 40.8% price on three outcomes incorporates residual uncertainty around any late-cycle or unresolved contests, though no additional Senate-level defeats have materialized as of early August. Historical patterns of low primary turnover for Senate incumbents further anchor expectations near the observed results, with trader consensus reflecting confirmed primary outcomes rather than speculation about broader waves.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano2 45.1%
1 <1%
0 <1%
4 <1%
$30,857 Wol.
$30,857 Wol.
0
<1%
1
1%
2
57%
3
39%
4
<1%
>4
<1%
2 45.1%
1 <1%
0 <1%
4 <1%
$30,857 Wol.
$30,857 Wol.
0
$4,131 Wol.
<1%
1
$2,732 Wol.
1%
2
$14,579 Wol.
57%
3
$3,438 Wol.
39%
4
$2,781 Wol.
<1%
>4
$3,195 Wol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Two Republican Senate incumbents—Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas—have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, establishing the baseline for the current market pricing.** Cassidy failed to advance from Louisiana’s May primary amid a Trump-endorsed challenge by Rep. Julia Letlow, while Cornyn fell to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the May 26 runoff after Trump’s late backing. These outcomes reflect the influence of presidential endorsements and intra-party dynamics on contested races.
With approximately 20 Republican-held seats contested in the cycle and most other incumbents (such as those in Nebraska, Wyoming, and elsewhere) either retiring or securing nomination without notable upset, the probability distribution centers on two losses. The 40.8% price on three outcomes incorporates residual uncertainty around any late-cycle or unresolved contests, though no additional Senate-level defeats have materialized as of early August. Historical patterns of low primary turnover for Senate incumbents further anchor expectations near the observed results, with trader consensus reflecting confirmed primary outcomes rather than speculation about broader waves.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$30,857Rynek otwarty
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Two Republican Senate incumbents—Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas—have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, establishing the baseline for the current market pricing.** Cassidy failed to advance from Louisiana’s May primary amid a Trump-endorsed challenge by Rep. Julia Letlow, while Cornyn fell to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the May 26 runoff after Trump’s late backing. These outcomes reflect the influence of presidential endorsements and intra-party dynamics on contested races.
With approximately 20 Republican-held seats contested in the cycle and most other incumbents (such as those in Nebraska, Wyoming, and elsewhere) either retiring or securing nomination without notable upset, the probability distribution centers on two losses. The 40.8% price on three outcomes incorporates residual uncertainty around any late-cycle or unresolved contests, though no additional Senate-level defeats have materialized as of early August. Historical patterns of low primary turnover for Senate incumbents further anchor expectations near the observed results, with trader consensus reflecting confirmed primary outcomes rather than speculation about broader waves.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Wolumen
$30,857Rynek otwarty
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Two Republican Senate incumbents—Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas—have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, establishing the baseline for the current market pricing.** Cassidy failed to advance from Louisiana’s May primary amid a Trump-endorsed challenge by Rep. Julia Letlow, while Cornyn fell to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the May 26 runoff after Trump’s late backing. These outcomes reflect the influence of presidential endorsements and intra-party dynamics on contested races. With approximately 20 Republican-held seats contested in the cycle and most other incumbents (such as those in Nebraska, Wyoming, and elsewhere) either retiring or securing nomination without notable upset, the probability distribution centers on two losses. The 40.8% price on three outcomes incorporates residual uncertainty around any late-cycle or unresolved contests, though no additional Senate-level defeats have materialized as of early August. Historical patterns of low primary turnover for Senate incumbents further anchor expectations near the observed results, with trader consensus reflecting confirmed primary outcomes rather than speculation about broader waves.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
65%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
70%
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
45%
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