Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s July 22, 2026, White House meeting with President Trump marked the clearest recent diplomatic signal, with Aoun pledging to end all hostilities with Israel “forever” and disarm Hezbollah as part of efforts toward a permanent agreement. U.S.-facilitated talks, building on the March-April 2026 ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon, focus on mutual recognition of sovereignty, border security arrangements, and withdrawal of non-state armed groups. These negotiations remain tied to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy, where Tehran has linked Lebanese outcomes to any wider regional memorandum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing verification of Hezbollah disarmament commitments and the durability of the existing ceasefire amid historical precedent for fragile border truces.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
$9,986,534 Wol.
May 31, 2026
April 26
No
May 31
No
June 15
No
June 30
No
July 31
No
$9,986,534 Wol.
April 26
$77,082 Wol.
No
May 31
$1,631,784 Wol.
No
June 15
$3,245,622 Wol.
No
June 30
$3,796,433 Wol.
No
July 31
$1,235,612 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s July 22, 2026, White House meeting with President Trump marked the clearest recent diplomatic signal, with Aoun pledging to end all hostilities with Israel “forever” and disarm Hezbollah as part of efforts toward a permanent agreement. U.S.-facilitated talks, building on the March-April 2026 ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon, focus on mutual recognition of sovereignty, border security arrangements, and withdrawal of non-state armed groups. These negotiations remain tied to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy, where Tehran has linked Lebanese outcomes to any wider regional memorandum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing verification of Hezbollah disarmament commitments and the durability of the existing ceasefire amid historical precedent for fragile border truces.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$9,986,534Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s July 22, 2026, White House meeting with President Trump marked the clearest recent diplomatic signal, with Aoun pledging to end all hostilities with Israel “forever” and disarm Hezbollah as part of efforts toward a permanent agreement. U.S.-facilitated talks, building on the March-April 2026 ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon, focus on mutual recognition of sovereignty, border security arrangements, and withdrawal of non-state armed groups. These negotiations remain tied to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy, where Tehran has linked Lebanese outcomes to any wider regional memorandum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing verification of Hezbollah disarmament commitments and the durability of the existing ceasefire amid historical precedent for fragile border truces.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$9,986,534Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s July 22, 2026, White House meeting with President Trump marked the clearest recent diplomatic signal, with Aoun pledging to end all hostilities with Israel “forever” and disarm Hezbollah as part of efforts toward a permanent agreement. U.S.-facilitated talks, building on the March-April 2026 ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon, focus on mutual recognition of sovereignty, border security arrangements, and withdrawal of non-state armed groups. These negotiations remain tied to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy, where Tehran has linked Lebanese outcomes to any wider regional memorandum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing verification of Hezbollah disarmament commitments and the durability of the existing ceasefire amid historical precedent for fragile border truces.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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