Ron Estes (R), the incumbent representative for Kansas’s 4th District, secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins, including a 23-point Trump victory in 2024, underpin the 92% implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican due to its suburban and rural voter base around Wichita. Limited Democratic primary activity and absence of competitive polling keep the race non-competitive. A major scandal, health event affecting Estes, or unprecedented national Democratic surge could theoretically narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though historical base rates for such shifts in comparable districts remain low.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoKS-04 House Election Winner
KS-04 House Election Winner
$59,498 Wol.
$59,498 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
7%
$59,498 Wol.
$59,498 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$35,288 Wol.
92%
Democratic Party
$24,210 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ron Estes (R), the incumbent representative for Kansas’s 4th District, secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins, including a 23-point Trump victory in 2024, underpin the 92% implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican due to its suburban and rural voter base around Wichita. Limited Democratic primary activity and absence of competitive polling keep the race non-competitive. A major scandal, health event affecting Estes, or unprecedented national Democratic surge could theoretically narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though historical base rates for such shifts in comparable districts remain low.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Wolumen
$59,498Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ron Estes (R), the incumbent representative for Kansas’s 4th District, secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins, including a 23-point Trump victory in 2024, underpin the 92% implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican due to its suburban and rural voter base around Wichita. Limited Democratic primary activity and absence of competitive polling keep the race non-competitive. A major scandal, health event affecting Estes, or unprecedented national Democratic surge could theoretically narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though historical base rates for such shifts in comparable districts remain low.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$59,498Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ron Estes (R), the incumbent representative for Kansas’s 4th District, secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins, including a 23-point Trump victory in 2024, underpin the 92% implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican due to its suburban and rural voter base around Wichita. Limited Democratic primary activity and absence of competitive polling keep the race non-competitive. A major scandal, health event affecting Estes, or unprecedented national Democratic surge could theoretically narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though historical base rates for such shifts in comparable districts remain low.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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