The high-profile Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, featuring incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, generated substantial national attention, record outside spending, and elevated mobilization among registered Republicans. Official results from the May 19 election showed roughly 105,000 total votes cast, more than double the 2024 primary figure, reflecting turnout near 34% of district Republicans amid the competitive dynamics. This outcome aligns closely with trader consensus around the 100-110k range. Late certification adjustments, recount petitions, or disputes over provisional and absentee ballots remain the primary variables that could shift final certified totals, though preliminary county reporting and historical patterns in similar high-interest House primaries indicate limited scope for material change.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano100-110k 99.5%
90-100k 4.9%
<80k 2.9%
80-90k <1%
$48,111 Wol.
$48,111 Wol.
May 19, 2026
<80k
3%
80-90k
1%
90-100k
5%
100-110k
100%
110-120k
<1%
120k+
<1%
100-110k 99.5%
90-100k 4.9%
<80k 2.9%
80-90k <1%
$48,111 Wol.
$48,111 Wol.
May 19, 2026
<80k
$5,312 Wol.
3%
80-90k
$4,066 Wol.
1%
90-100k
$2,741 Wol.
5%
100-110k
$13,472 Wol.
100%
110-120k
$7,064 Wol.
<1%
120k+
$15,456 Wol.
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The high-profile Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, featuring incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, generated substantial national attention, record outside spending, and elevated mobilization among registered Republicans. Official results from the May 19 election showed roughly 105,000 total votes cast, more than double the 2024 primary figure, reflecting turnout near 34% of district Republicans amid the competitive dynamics. This outcome aligns closely with trader consensus around the 100-110k range. Late certification adjustments, recount petitions, or disputes over provisional and absentee ballots remain the primary variables that could shift final certified totals, though preliminary county reporting and historical patterns in similar high-interest House primaries indicate limited scope for material change.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Rynek otwarty: May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Wolumen
$48,111Data zakończenia
May 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The high-profile Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, featuring incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, generated substantial national attention, record outside spending, and elevated mobilization among registered Republicans. Official results from the May 19 election showed roughly 105,000 total votes cast, more than double the 2024 primary figure, reflecting turnout near 34% of district Republicans amid the competitive dynamics. This outcome aligns closely with trader consensus around the 100-110k range. Late certification adjustments, recount petitions, or disputes over provisional and absentee ballots remain the primary variables that could shift final certified totals, though preliminary county reporting and historical patterns in similar high-interest House primaries indicate limited scope for material change.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Wolumen
$48,111Data zakończenia
May 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The high-profile Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, featuring incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, generated substantial national attention, record outside spending, and elevated mobilization among registered Republicans. Official results from the May 19 election showed roughly 105,000 total votes cast, more than double the 2024 primary figure, reflecting turnout near 34% of district Republicans amid the competitive dynamics. This outcome aligns closely with trader consensus around the 100-110k range. Late certification adjustments, recount petitions, or disputes over provisional and absentee ballots remain the primary variables that could shift final certified totals, though preliminary county reporting and historical patterns in similar high-interest House primaries indicate limited scope for material change.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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