Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in London on May 4?
Lowest temperature in London on May 4?
12°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$25,819 Wol.
$25,819 Wol.
May 4, 2026
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$25,819 Wol.
$25,819 Wol.
May 4, 2026
5°C or below
$7,309 Wol.
No
6°C
$3,203 Wol.
No
7°C
$893 Wol.
No
8°C
$2,043 Wol.
No
9°C
$804 Wol.
No
10°C
$800 Wol.
No
11°C
$1,284 Wol.
No
12°C
$4,692 Wol.
Yes
13°C
$1,127 Wol.
No
14°C
$1,576 Wol.
No
15°C or higher
$2,089 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$25,819Data zakończenia
May 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$25,819Data zakończenia
May 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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