The market's strong 90% implied probability for a 66-67°F low in Los Angeles on September 18 reflects trader consensus around official National Weather Service observations showing a minimum consistent with typical early-fall marine-layer influence along the coast. Persistent onshore flow and a stable inversion layer limited overnight radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping into the low 60s or below despite seasonal norms around 64°F. Recent model guidance and station data aligned closely with this range, reducing uncertainty and sidelining lower bins below 5% probability. Upcoming resolution will hinge on final verified readings from Los Angeles International Airport or downtown stations, with any measurement adjustments unlikely to shift the leading outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 18?
66-67°F 99.5%
62-63°F 3%
55°F or below <1%
56-57°F <1%
$2,973 Wol.
$2,973 Wol.
Sep 18, 2026
55°F or below
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
Yes
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74°F or higher
No
66-67°F 99.5%
62-63°F 3%
55°F or below <1%
56-57°F <1%
$2,973 Wol.
$2,973 Wol.
Sep 18, 2026
55°F or below
$26 Wol.
No
56-57°F
$82 Wol.
No
58-59°F
$1,556 Wol.
No
60-61°F
$123 Wol.
No
62-63°F
$99 Wol.
No
64-65°F
$415 Wol.
No
66-67°F
$353 Wol.
Yes
68-69°F
$103 Wol.
No
70-71°F
$5 Wol.
No
72-73°F
$181 Wol.
No
74°F or higher
$31 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's strong 90% implied probability for a 66-67°F low in Los Angeles on September 18 reflects trader consensus around official National Weather Service observations showing a minimum consistent with typical early-fall marine-layer influence along the coast. Persistent onshore flow and a stable inversion layer limited overnight radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping into the low 60s or below despite seasonal norms around 64°F. Recent model guidance and station data aligned closely with this range, reducing uncertainty and sidelining lower bins below 5% probability. Upcoming resolution will hinge on final verified readings from Los Angeles International Airport or downtown stations, with any measurement adjustments unlikely to shift the leading outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,973Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's strong 90% implied probability for a 66-67°F low in Los Angeles on September 18 reflects trader consensus around official National Weather Service observations showing a minimum consistent with typical early-fall marine-layer influence along the coast. Persistent onshore flow and a stable inversion layer limited overnight radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping into the low 60s or below despite seasonal norms around 64°F. Recent model guidance and station data aligned closely with this range, reducing uncertainty and sidelining lower bins below 5% probability. Upcoming resolution will hinge on final verified readings from Los Angeles International Airport or downtown stations, with any measurement adjustments unlikely to shift the leading outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,973Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
The market's strong 90% implied probability for a 66-67°F low in Los Angeles on September 18 reflects trader consensus around official National Weather Service observations showing a minimum consistent with typical early-fall marine-layer influence along the coast. Persistent onshore flow and a stable inversion layer limited overnight radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping into the low 60s or below despite seasonal norms around 64°F. Recent model guidance and station data aligned closely with this range, reducing uncertainty and sidelining lower bins below 5% probability. Upcoming resolution will hinge on final verified readings from Los Angeles International Airport or downtown stations, with any measurement adjustments unlikely to shift the leading outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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