Traders see the lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 17 closely split between the 56–57 °F and 60–61 °F ranges because official observations and model guidance showed a strong marine layer with persistent onshore flow from the Pacific moderating overnight cooling. National Weather Service data recorded a minimum of 63 °F at San Francisco International Airport amid haze and high humidity, well above the 1991–2020 normal of 56 °F, as the layer of stratus and light westerly winds prevented radiational cooling typical of clearer autumn nights. This outcome aligns with historical analogs when coastal upwelling and fog keep lows in the upper 50s to low 60s rather than dipping toward the mid-50s or below. Key variables traders weighed included the depth of the marine layer, wind speeds overnight, and any late-day clearing that could have allowed greater temperature drops, with new observational data from the National Weather Service likely to refine implied probabilities before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 17?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 17?
60-61°F 100%
51°F or below <1%
52-53°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
$947 Wol.
$947 Wol.
Sep 17, 2026
51°F or below
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
Yes
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70°F or higher
No
60-61°F 100%
51°F or below <1%
52-53°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
$947 Wol.
$947 Wol.
Sep 17, 2026
51°F or below
$0 Wol.
No
52-53°F
$0 Wol.
No
54-55°F
$25 Wol.
No
56-57°F
$25 Wol.
No
58-59°F
$523 Wol.
No
60-61°F
$325 Wol.
Yes
62-63°F
$12 Wol.
No
64-65°F
$0 Wol.
No
66-67°F
$0 Wol.
No
68-69°F
$0 Wol.
No
70°F or higher
$37 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 17 closely split between the 56–57 °F and 60–61 °F ranges because official observations and model guidance showed a strong marine layer with persistent onshore flow from the Pacific moderating overnight cooling. National Weather Service data recorded a minimum of 63 °F at San Francisco International Airport amid haze and high humidity, well above the 1991–2020 normal of 56 °F, as the layer of stratus and light westerly winds prevented radiational cooling typical of clearer autumn nights. This outcome aligns with historical analogs when coastal upwelling and fog keep lows in the upper 50s to low 60s rather than dipping toward the mid-50s or below. Key variables traders weighed included the depth of the marine layer, wind speeds overnight, and any late-day clearing that could have allowed greater temperature drops, with new observational data from the National Weather Service likely to refine implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 15, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$947Data zakończenia
Sep 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 15, 2026, 7:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRozstrzygający
0x69c47de9d...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 17 closely split between the 56–57 °F and 60–61 °F ranges because official observations and model guidance showed a strong marine layer with persistent onshore flow from the Pacific moderating overnight cooling. National Weather Service data recorded a minimum of 63 °F at San Francisco International Airport amid haze and high humidity, well above the 1991–2020 normal of 56 °F, as the layer of stratus and light westerly winds prevented radiational cooling typical of clearer autumn nights. This outcome aligns with historical analogs when coastal upwelling and fog keep lows in the upper 50s to low 60s rather than dipping toward the mid-50s or below. Key variables traders weighed included the depth of the marine layer, wind speeds overnight, and any late-day clearing that could have allowed greater temperature drops, with new observational data from the National Weather Service likely to refine implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$947Data zakończenia
Sep 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 15, 2026, 7:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRozstrzygający
0x69c47de9d...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Traders see the lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 17 closely split between the 56–57 °F and 60–61 °F ranges because official observations and model guidance showed a strong marine layer with persistent onshore flow from the Pacific moderating overnight cooling. National Weather Service data recorded a minimum of 63 °F at San Francisco International Airport amid haze and high humidity, well above the 1991–2020 normal of 56 °F, as the layer of stratus and light westerly winds prevented radiational cooling typical of clearer autumn nights. This outcome aligns with historical analogs when coastal upwelling and fog keep lows in the upper 50s to low 60s rather than dipping toward the mid-50s or below. Key variables traders weighed included the depth of the marine layer, wind speeds overnight, and any late-day clearing that could have allowed greater temperature drops, with new observational data from the National Weather Service likely to refine implied probabilities before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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