Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,197 Wol.
$12,197 Wol.
May 4, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,197 Wol.
$12,197 Wol.
May 4, 2026
8°C or below
$553 Wol.
No
9°C
$522 Wol.
No
10°C
$816 Wol.
No
11°C
$771 Wol.
No
12°C
$824 Wol.
No
13°C
$2,700 Wol.
No
14°C
$3,829 Wol.
Yes
15°C
$628 Wol.
No
16°C
$634 Wol.
No
17°C
$500 Wol.
No
18°C or higher
$419 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$12,197Data zakończenia
May 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$12,197Data zakończenia
May 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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