Persistent heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover across Tokyo on September 21 have stabilized overnight temperatures, supporting the market's strong 92% implied probability for a 22°C low. Official forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate minimal radiational cooling under these overcast, humid conditions with northerly winds, keeping the minimum near 22–24°C (72–76°F) consistent with recent model consensus. This positioning aligns with typical late-September climatology for the region under similar synoptic patterns. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing overnight that enhances radiative heat loss or a revised observational reading falling to 21°C or below from the Japan Meteorological Agency station.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
22°C 92%
21°C 5%
19°C 2%
20°C 2%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
92%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 92%
21°C 5%
19°C 2%
20°C 2%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
$332 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$1,013 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$576 Wol.
2%
20°C
$570 Wol.
2%
21°C
$927 Wol.
5%
22°C
$1,707 Wol.
92%
23°C
$1,196 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$31 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$31 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$31 Wol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$31 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover across Tokyo on September 21 have stabilized overnight temperatures, supporting the market's strong 92% implied probability for a 22°C low. Official forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate minimal radiational cooling under these overcast, humid conditions with northerly winds, keeping the minimum near 22–24°C (72–76°F) consistent with recent model consensus. This positioning aligns with typical late-September climatology for the region under similar synoptic patterns. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing overnight that enhances radiative heat loss or a revised observational reading falling to 21°C or below from the Japan Meteorological Agency station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$6,444Data zakończenia
Sep 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover across Tokyo on September 21 have stabilized overnight temperatures, supporting the market's strong 92% implied probability for a 22°C low. Official forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate minimal radiational cooling under these overcast, humid conditions with northerly winds, keeping the minimum near 22–24°C (72–76°F) consistent with recent model consensus. This positioning aligns with typical late-September climatology for the region under similar synoptic patterns. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing overnight that enhances radiative heat loss or a revised observational reading falling to 21°C or below from the Japan Meteorological Agency station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$6,444Data zakończenia
Sep 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover across Tokyo on September 21 have stabilized overnight temperatures, supporting the market's strong 92% implied probability for a 22°C low. Official forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate minimal radiational cooling under these overcast, humid conditions with northerly winds, keeping the minimum near 22–24°C (72–76°F) consistent with recent model consensus. This positioning aligns with typical late-September climatology for the region under similar synoptic patterns. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing overnight that enhances radiative heat loss or a revised observational reading falling to 21°C or below from the Japan Meteorological Agency station.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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